MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 9Braden Montgomery
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.333wOBA vs RHP.341xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .289 vs league .286 (about even).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .368 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .363 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .350 vs league .347 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .328 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .317 vs league .314 (about even).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .329 vs league .325 (about even).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Braden Montgomery's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Braden Montgomery's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 102.2 mph at -16°Single: 58.7 mph at -53°Single: 70.2 mph at -70°Out: 72.0 mph at -22°Single: 96.3 mph at 15°Double: 100.1 mph at 23°Out: 100.9 mph at 0°Single: 103.1 mph at -32°Single: 109.7 mph at 3°Single: 104.2 mph at 7°Out: 90.2 mph at -25°Out: 92.6 mph at 12°Single: 75.4 mph at -43°Out: 49.9 mph at -67°Out: 75.0 mph at -1°Single: 98.9 mph at 16°Double: 102.0 mph at 2°Out: 103.1 mph at -15°Double: 103.8 mph at 21°Out: 72.8 mph at -6°Out: 79.0 mph at -8°Out: 94.4 mph at 19°Out: 82.1 mph at -32°Out: 91.4 mph at -18°Out: 84.8 mph at -38°Out: 106.8 mph at -1°Out: 89.2 mph at -10°Out: 94.3 mph at -12°Out: 93.3 mph at 28°Out: 89.1 mph at -24°Out: 108.5 mph at 22°Out: 85.2 mph at -28°Out: 90.2 mph at 20°Out: 98.8 mph at 40°Out: 67.7 mph at -48°Double: 98.3 mph at 10°Single: 97.4 mph at -6°Out: 91.4 mph at 44°Out: 98.8 mph at 5°Out: 71.2 mph at -61°
43% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.8%54.6%+4.1
2+ total bases32.5%28.7%+3.8
Home run10.4%8.0%+2.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Braden Montgomery hits
Braden Montgomery · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .384 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.327xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .116 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 30 pitches seen.237xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .330 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 17 pitches seen.283xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .277 on 23 PA) · league .342 · 57 pitches seen.299xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .379 on 24 PA) · league .386 · 58 pitches seen.381xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .397 on 23 PA) · league .321 · 35 pitches seen.371xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .233 on 17 PA) · league .308 · 51 pitches seen.264xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .381 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 53 pitches seen.369xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .420 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 33 pitches seen.363xwOBA .434 shrunk (raw .477 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 128 pitches seen.434xwOBA .364 shrunk (raw .483 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.364xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .319 on 25 PA) · league .263 · 154 pitches seen.301xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .313 on 19 PA) · league .274 · 170 pitches seen.298
vs RHP · 845 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 18 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 33% of 24 swings · league 20%33%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 19%7%Whiff 16% of 51 swings · league 10%16%Whiff 6% of 50 swings · league 9%6%Whiff 3% of 30 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 18% of 39 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 18% of 38 swings · league 13%18%Whiff 4% of 24 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 46% of 24 swings · league 28%46%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 24%38%Whiff 50% of 50 swings · league 32%50%Whiff 59% of 44 swings · league 49%59%
vs RHP · 845 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 55% of 33 pitches · league 62%55%Swings at 80% of 30 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 88% of 17 pitches · league 66%88%Swings at 90% of 57 pitches · league 70%90%Swings at 86% of 58 pitches · league 76%86%Swings at 86% of 35 pitches · league 70%86%Swings at 77% of 51 pitches · league 65%77%Swings at 72% of 53 pitches · league 68%72%Swings at 73% of 33 pitches · league 60%73%Swings at 19% of 128 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 31% of 26 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 33% of 154 pitches · league 40%33%Swings at 26% of 170 pitches · league 32%26%
vs RHP · 845 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Braden Montgomery against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.289.28632.0%27.3%31About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.368.36517.6%15.2%52About league average vs these
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.363.36016.2%13.8%54About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.350.34727.2%23.3%29About league average vs these
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.328.32425.6%24.6%22About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.317.31428.2%26.9%21About league average vs these
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.329.32529.4%28.2%26About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Braden Montgomery · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.625.625.750.606.3560.0%0.0%12.5%88.9109.70.0%62.5%18.8%
Last 15 G1435.387.457.516.429.3398.6%11.4%30.8%88.9109.73.6%50.0%21.4%
Last 30 G2985.274.376.411.353.3958.2%14.1%25.5%87.1109.76.1%42.4%28.8%
90 days72214.274.369.392.344.35114.5%12.1%25.8%88.7109.73.9%42.9%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 154 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 20%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.000.000.000.000.22250.0%0.0%33.3%91.492.60.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G915.000.000.000.060.22046.7%0.0%39.5%93.1108.512.5%12.5%50.0%
Last 30 G1828.036.036.071.077.23032.1%0.0%31.9%91.0108.55.3%26.3%26.3%
90 days5083.093.181.187.184.27628.9%8.4%29.3%87.7108.53.9%33.3%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 51 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 18%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.500.500.600.485.32910.0%0.0%18.2%89.1109.70.0%55.6%22.2%
Last 15 G1550.261.320.348.318.30420.0%8.0%34.0%89.8109.75.6%41.7%27.8%
Last 30 G30113.208.292.317.285.35414.2%10.6%27.4%88.0109.75.9%38.8%28.2%
90 days74297.222.316.333.299.33018.5%11.1%26.8%88.4109.73.9%40.5%27.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 205 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 20%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 5%
Braden Montgomery · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches20trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.297 / .330running 34 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball93.5102.2-16.194Out
Sep 25RHPSinker93.258.7-53.227Single
Sep 25RHPFastball95.870.2-70.278Single
Sep 24RHPSinker90.672.0-22.050Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.396.315.803Single
Sep 24RHPFastball92.2100.123.683Double
Sep 24RHPFastball91.6100.90.386Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.1103.1-32.088Single
Sep 23RHPCutter91.1109.73.566Single
Sep 23RHPFastball98.9104.27.597Single
Sep 23LHPFastball91.690.2-25.054Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball82.092.612.836Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25322000
Sep 24523001
Sep 23433000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20423000
Sep 19312000
Sep 18200001
Sep 17300001
Sep 15200001
Sep 14400013

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Braden Montgomery bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Braden Montgomery with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.3%41.0%
Whiff%18.4%21.3%
Contact%81.6%78.7%
Chase%28.2%39.6%
wOBA.262.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.0%20.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%19.1%
BB%10.6%
Whiff%13.0%
Barrel%3.2%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV88.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

214 PA
wOBA.333
xwOBA vs this mix.341against pitches like his
RV/1000.01
Hard-hit%30.4%
K%15.8%
BB%10.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Braden Montgomery: every projection we've made →