MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CWS · batting 3Miguel Vargas
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedCold
.375wOBA vs RHP.368xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · COLTomoyuki Sugano
Throws rightBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
4.1projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Splitter: 22% usage, 86.9 mph, +10.0″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .307 vs league .283 (hitter's edge).Splitter 22%Fastball: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +5.5″ arm side, +14.2″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .374 vs league .350 (hitter's edge).Fastball 20%Sinker: 19% usage, 93.0 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +9.6″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .382 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Sinker 19%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.0 mph, -1.4″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .329 vs league .305 (hitter's edge).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 83.7 mph, -9.3″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .311 vs league .287 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 11%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.9 mph, -6.2″ arm side, -9.4″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .328 vs league .303 (hitter's edge).Curveball 10%Slider: 8% usage, 86.2 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +0.6″ rise. Miguel Vargas: wOBA .316 vs league .292 (hitter's edge).Slider 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Miguel Vargas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Miguel Vargas's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 98.3 mph at 52°Out: 82.9 mph at 46°Out: 80.2 mph at 45°Single: 102.7 mph at 14°Single: 96.3 mph at 13°Single: 64.2 mph at 28°Out: 95.6 mph at 66°Out: 60.2 mph at 14°Out: 76.7 mph at 10°Single: 95.2 mph at -6°Out: 82.4 mph at -21°Out: 93.8 mph at 74°Out: 88.9 mph at 20°Single: 93.9 mph at 6°Home run: 102.2 mph at 33°Out: 90.4 mph at 30°Home run: 101.7 mph at 34°Double: 102.0 mph at 21°Out: 94.9 mph at 42°Out: 93.1 mph at 68°Out: 92.0 mph at -6°Out: 64.5 mph at -40°Out: 76.7 mph at 42°Single: 107.5 mph at 9°Out: 96.0 mph at -10°Out: 95.3 mph at 66°Out: 89.6 mph at 52°Single: 78.1 mph at 20°Out: 92.8 mph at 62°Single: 59.3 mph at -74°Out: 87.7 mph at 44°Out: 89.0 mph at 60°Home run: 105.3 mph at 30°Out: 74.7 mph at 47°Out: 65.9 mph at -37°Single: 76.3 mph at 16°Single: 68.7 mph at 35°Out: 94.7 mph at 33°Single: 101.4 mph at 16°Out: 104.3 mph at 33°
35% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.7%63.3%+6.5
2+ total bases45.7%39.2%+6.5
Home run18.6%14.3%+4.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+5.1
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+5.0
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+3.2
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Miguel Vargas hits
Miguel Vargas · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .248 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 39 pitches seen.262xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .449 on 13 PA) · league .307 · 61 pitches seen.381xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .215 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 34 pitches seen.240xwOBA .414 shrunk (raw .449 on 25 PA) · league .342 · 55 pitches seen.414xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .389 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 50 pitches seen.388xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .269 on 28 PA) · league .321 · 61 pitches seen.285xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .396 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 22 pitches seen.330xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .325 on 27 PA) · league .351 · 44 pitches seen.333xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .334 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 60 pitches seen.317xwOBA .493 shrunk (raw .580 on 16 PA) · league .377 · 105 pitches seen.493xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .311 on 24 PA) · league .274 · 120 pitches seen.299xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .500 on 17 PA) · league .263 · 56 pitches seen.402xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .350 on 40 PA) · league .274 · 268 pitches seen.332
vs RHP · 975 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 7% of 28 swings · league 22%7%Whiff 23% of 40 swings · league 20%23%Whiff 23% of 22 swings · league 19%23%Whiff 4% of 45 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 11% of 36 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 22% of 49 swings · league 11%22%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 0% of 35 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 28%20%Whiff 34% of 32 swings · league 24%34%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 32%21%Whiff 41% of 61 swings · league 49%41%
vs RHP · 975 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 72% of 39 pitches · league 62%72%Swings at 66% of 61 pitches · league 72%66%Swings at 65% of 34 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 82% of 55 pitches · league 70%82%Swings at 72% of 50 pitches · league 76%72%Swings at 80% of 61 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 32% of 22 pitches · league 65%32%Swings at 80% of 44 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 53% of 60 pitches · league 60%53%Swings at 14% of 105 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 27% of 120 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 43% of 56 pitches · league 40%43%Swings at 23% of 268 pitches · league 32%23%
vs RHP · 975 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Miguel Vargas against each of Tomoyuki Sugano's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Splitter22%86.9+10″ / +5″.307.28328.7%29.0%13About league average vs these
Fastball20%93.1+6″ / +14″.374.35017.7%19.2%90About league average vs these
Sinker19%93.0+13″ / +10″.382.35710.8%11.8%85About league average vs these
Cutter12%89.0-1″ / +5″.329.30526.4%28.0%45About league average vs these
Sweeper11%83.7-9″ / +1″.311.28720.9%29.4%35About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball10%79.9-6″ / -9″.328.30318.6%26.5%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider8%86.2-4″ / +1″.316.29222.6%31.4%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Miguel Vargas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.412.250.324.32129.4%23.5%29.6%84.8102.70.0%37.5%50.0%
Last 15 G1546.270.391.541.397.37619.6%17.4%23.5%85.7105.313.8%34.5%31.0%
Last 30 G30101.279.376.430.358.35119.8%13.9%17.8%87.3105.37.5%34.3%35.8%
90 days77250.267.372.490.377.36818.4%14.0%19.2%89.7111.211.4%41.3%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 167 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 23%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.333.429.333.357.3230.0%14.3%0.0%88.895.60.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1023.263.348.263.287.28417.4%13.0%17.1%86.6107.50.0%31.2%25.0%
Last 30 G1734.259.382.259.309.29220.6%17.6%16.4%85.9107.50.0%28.6%28.6%
90 days50102.226.343.417.339.35720.6%15.7%17.5%91.4111.09.2%46.2%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 17%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.278.417.278.333.32220.8%20.8%23.5%86.5102.70.0%35.7%42.9%
Last 15 G1569.268.377.446.360.34518.8%15.9%21.6%86.0107.58.9%33.3%28.9%
Last 30 G30135.274.378.389.346.33620.0%14.8%17.5%87.0107.55.7%33.0%34.1%
90 days78352.255.364.469.366.36519.0%14.5%18.7%90.2111.210.8%42.7%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 232 balls in play
Ground 31%Line drive 21%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 15%
Miguel Vargas · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating94Top tier
Last 100 pitches99steady
wOBA / xwOBA.371 / .379results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball93.398.352.010Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.082.946.018Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball81.880.245.030Sac fly
Sep 24RHPSinker92.0102.714.794Single
Sep 24RHPSinker91.196.313.907Single
Sep 23RHPCutter91.064.228.725Single
Sep 23LHPFastball91.795.666.020Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.060.214.179Out
Sep 23LHPFastball95.676.710.301Double play
Sep 22LHPCurveball83.495.2-6.241Single
Sep 22LHPChangeup85.082.4-21.041Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.293.874.006Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24622013
Sep 23411000
Sep 22511010
Sep 20511031
Sep 19414120
Sep 18526101
Sep 17400011
Sep 16411001
Sep 15511010

Two strikes

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPwith two strikes
Tomoyuki Sugano with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter22%28%24.1%16.5%19.0%
Fastball20%22%19.4%16.9%18.0%
Sinker19%15%11.8%11.1%17.0%
Curveball10%12%20.8%13.9%20.0%
Slider8%12%15.0%14.3%21.1%
Cutter12%6%12.5%10.5%17.9%
Sweeper11%6%12.5%5.6%19.3%
Miguel Vargas bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Miguel Vargas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.2%42.4%
Whiff%21.8%22.2%
Contact%78.2%77.8%
Chase%33.2%39.9%
wOBA.262.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.6%22.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.357
K%18.8%
BB%14.0%
Whiff%8.4%
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%28.1%
Avg EV90.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

250 PA
wOBA.375
xwOBA vs this mix.368against pitches like his
RV/1001.15
Hard-hit%27.5%
K%18.6%
BB%14.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL vs CWS
4.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.6 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 40.8%41%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 16.0%16%56 strikeouts: 11.1%11%67 strikeouts: 6.6%7%78 strikeouts: 3.4%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.7%3%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 59% (red bars) · under: 41%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.8%
BB%4.8%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff85
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Splitter22%7386.915.5%
Fastball20%9493.08.3%
Sinker19%7492.93.5%
Cutter12%11489.15.0%
Sweeper11%8583.79.6%
Curveball10%7980.011.8%
Slider8%8886.06.3%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207229%13%41%.135
Sep 14889%8%39%.454
Sep 99920%15%24%.330

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tomoyuki Sugano COL · RHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Miguel Vargas: every projection we've made →