MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 3Isaac Paredes
Bats rightTalent grade AContactHot
.369wOBA vs LHP.322xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%2.6trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .332 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .367 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .353 vs league .345 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .323 vs league .315 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Isaac Paredes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Isaac Paredes's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 78.6 mph at 54°Out: 89.5 mph at -1°Home run: 96.6 mph at 35°Out: 89.5 mph at 58°Out: 82.7 mph at 59°Out: 96.1 mph at 20°Out: 95.8 mph at 32°Out: 85.7 mph at 20°Double: 100.6 mph at 37°Out: 71.5 mph at -29°Out: 57.9 mph at 82°Out: 65.7 mph at -1°Home run: 104.7 mph at 25°Single: 81.7 mph at 9°Out: 82.4 mph at 79°Out: 45.9 mph at 36°Out: 80.3 mph at 78°Out: 79.1 mph at 43°Single: 86.5 mph at 15°Home run: 103.6 mph at 23°Out: 96.9 mph at 28°Single: 96.7 mph at 0°Single: 83.2 mph at 15°Single: 89.2 mph at 6°Out: 82.8 mph at 26°Out: 86.4 mph at 51°Out: 63.6 mph at 15°Out: 88.0 mph at 28°Out: 40.4 mph at -71°Out: 96.9 mph at -15°Out: 94.4 mph at 21°Out: 95.5 mph at 42°Out: 93.5 mph at -4°Out: 67.1 mph at 15°Home run: 96.8 mph at 28°Out: 100.0 mph at 51°Out: 58.4 mph at -13°Home run: 97.3 mph at 30°Double: 105.3 mph at 17°Out: 98.2 mph at 8°
38% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.3%64.3%+3.0
2+ total bases42.3%37.6%+4.7
Home run14.9%10.5%+4.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+3.3
Home run
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+2.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Isaac Paredes hits
Isaac Paredes · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .196 shrunk (raw .008 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 13 pitches seen.196xwOBA .211 shrunk (raw .008 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 18 pitches seen.211xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .268 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 17 pitches seen.256xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .291 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 8 pitches seen.305xwOBA .428 shrunk (raw .486 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 23 pitches seen.428xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .600 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.405xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .298 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 17 pitches seen.282xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .392 on 8 PA) · league .350 · 19 pitches seen.367xwOBA .360 shrunk (raw .451 on 8 PA) · league .299 · 22 pitches seen.360xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .365 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 18 pitches seen.311xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .009 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 41 pitches seen.279xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .365 on 8 PA) · league .289 · 56 pitches seen.319xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .249 on 16 PA) · league .257 · 60 pitches seen.252
vs LHP · 325 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 21%42%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 16%7%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 29%17%Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 48%9%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 34%26%
vs LHP · 325 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 46% of 13 pitches · league 63%46%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 71%67%Swings at 35% of 17 pitches · league 64%35%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 67%88%Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 46% of 13 pitches · league 72%46%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 59%71%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 68%79%Swings at 68% of 22 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 22% of 18 pitches · league 30%22%Swings at 15% of 41 pitches · league 26%15%Swings at 39% of 56 pitches · league 31%39%Swings at 38% of 60 pitches · league 41%38%
vs LHP · 325 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Isaac Paredes against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.332.32417.3%27.9%3Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.367.3599.5%16.6%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.353.34512.3%20.7%11About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.323.31525.3%32.0%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Isaac Paredes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.143.250.571.338.41012.5%12.5%11.8%86.9104.716.7%16.7%33.3%
Last 15 G918.188.278.750.411.39922.2%11.1%16.1%86.2104.716.7%41.7%41.7%
Last 30 G1734.185.324.519.353.31620.6%14.7%16.9%86.3104.79.5%33.3%28.6%
90 days3878.268.321.507.363.31715.4%6.4%12.7%85.6109.55.0%35.0%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 22%Line drive 32%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 23%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.273.400.636.417.2876.7%20.0%0.0%80.4100.60.0%36.4%27.3%
Last 15 G1545.316.378.605.407.32013.3%11.1%9.2%86.1105.32.9%41.2%47.1%
Last 30 G3095.286.400.532.408.32710.5%15.8%10.0%87.3105.31.4%34.8%37.7%
90 days73248.268.383.454.383.3358.9%13.3%11.1%85.0106.23.3%26.2%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 183 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 22%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.222.348.611.389.3308.7%17.4%4.7%82.7104.75.9%29.4%29.4%
Last 15 G1563.278.349.648.408.34215.9%11.1%11.0%86.2105.36.5%41.3%45.7%
Last 30 G30129.260.380.529.393.32413.2%15.5%11.8%87.1105.33.3%34.4%35.6%
90 days75326.268.368.467.378.33110.4%11.7%11.5%85.2109.53.7%28.4%39.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 243 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 24%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 19%
Isaac Paredes · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating80Excellent
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.382 / .351running 31 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run5/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider77.078.654.075Out
Sep 25LHPSlider75.489.5-1.224Force out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.496.635.317Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball99.089.558.008Out
Sep 24RHPCutter92.082.759.031Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.296.120.360Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper88.995.832.362Sac fly
Sep 23LHPFastball96.385.720.528Out
Sep 23RHPSinker99.3100.637.521Double
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.671.5-29.042Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter81.157.982.007Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter80.165.7-1.089Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400011
Sep 24514110
Sep 23512001
Sep 22525110
Sep 20400010
Sep 19425110
Sep 18422001
Sep 17411010
Sep 16400001
Sep 15400001

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Isaac Paredes bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Isaac Paredes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.2%41.5%
Whiff%19.2%21.6%
Contact%80.8%78.4%
Chase%41.5%39.9%
wOBA.247.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.7%20.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.375
K%11.4%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%5.7%
Barrel%3.0%
Hard-hit%21.5%
Avg EV85.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

78 PA
wOBA.369
xwOBA vs this mix.322against pitches like his
RV/1001.08
Hard-hit%26.2%
K%14.7%
BB%11.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Isaac Paredes: every projection we've made →