MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · HOU · batting 2Yordan Alvarez
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.329wOBA vs LHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · OAKJacob Lopez
Throws leftBTB Stuff 93Trending Down
4.7projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob Lopez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Slider: 37% usage, 75.3 mph, -10.4″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .291 vs league .294 (about even).Slider 37%Fastball: 35% usage, 90.2 mph, +13.7″ arm side, +12.5″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .333 vs league .336 (about even).Fastball 35%Cutter: 20% usage, 85.9 mph, +1.1″ arm side, +8.4″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .326 vs league .329 (about even).Cutter 20%Changeup: 7% usage, 81.2 mph, +17.2″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Yordan Alvarez: wOBA .314 vs league .317 (about even).Changeup 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Yordan Alvarez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Yordan Alvarez's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.7 mph at 50°Single: 110.8 mph at 6°Out: 98.3 mph at 18°Out: 84.7 mph at 65°Single: 104.6 mph at 16°Double: 107.3 mph at 7°Out: 97.6 mph at 55°Single: 100.0 mph at -17°Out: 77.6 mph at 33°Out: 83.4 mph at 4°Out: 107.5 mph at 20°Single: 101.9 mph at -3°Home run: 109.5 mph at 25°Single: 70.3 mph at 35°Out: 101.4 mph at 3°Single: 103.1 mph at 4°Out: 83.3 mph at -22°Single: 104.3 mph at -5°Out: 101.0 mph at -14°Out: 95.5 mph at 34°Out: 92.8 mph at -4°Out: 94.3 mph at 48°Double: 60.9 mph at -11°Home run: 107.2 mph at 37°Single: 64.2 mph at 24°Out: 97.2 mph at -33°Out: 97.6 mph at 53°Out: 107.7 mph at -10°Out: 91.2 mph at 26°Double: 110.7 mph at 15°Home run: 100.3 mph at 30°Out: 98.2 mph at 42°Out: 99.6 mph at -24°Double: 96.4 mph at 23°Out: 91.2 mph at 78°Out: 88.6 mph at 26°Single: 78.6 mph at 17°Out: 59.5 mph at -45°Out: 69.8 mph at -29°Out: 105.2 mph at 33°
60% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.3%65.9%+1.4
2+ total bases45.0%43.1%+1.8
Home run18.3%17.5%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+3.6
Home run
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+2.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Yordan Alvarez hits
Yordan Alvarez · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .374 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.262xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .276 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.292xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .068 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seen.217xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .210 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.269xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .329 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 22 pitches seen.361xwOBA .455 shrunk (raw .685 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 17 pitches seen.455xwOBA .251 shrunk (raw .212 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 17 pitches seen.251xwOBA .463 shrunk (raw .689 on 6 PA) · league .350 · 17 pitches seen.463xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .616 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 9 pitches seen.344xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .531 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 26 pitches seen.335xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .412 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 38 pitches seen.362xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .175 on 23 PA) · league .289 · 102 pitches seen.214xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .224 on 5 PA) · league .257 · 17 pitches seen.247
vs LHP · 320 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 23%17%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 16%14%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 25%29%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 29%8%Whiff 45% of 42 swings · league 48%45%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 34%13%
vs LHP · 320 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 63%75%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 64%75%Swings at 43% of 28 pitches · league 67%43%Swings at 64% of 22 pitches · league 76%64%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 35% of 17 pitches · league 59%35%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 66%78%Swings at 27% of 26 pitches · league 30%27%Swings at 34% of 38 pitches · league 26%34%Swings at 41% of 102 pitches · league 31%41%Swings at 47% of 17 pitches · league 41%47%
vs LHP · 320 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Yordan Alvarez against each of Jacob Lopez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Slider37%75.3-10″ / +3″.291.29427.6%27.7%6Little history vs this shape
Fastball35%90.2+14″ / +13″.333.3368.5%12.3%20About league average vs these
Cutter20%85.9+1″ / +8″.326.32921.4%29.0%13About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup7%81.2+17″ / +5″.314.31722.4%25.2%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Yordan Alvarez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.286.375.286.312.41412.5%12.5%16.7%92.4107.516.7%50.0%16.7%
Last 15 G1121.263.333.474.352.3339.5%9.5%16.2%93.8109.95.9%58.8%23.5%
Last 30 G2037.286.324.486.350.31913.5%5.4%14.7%93.4109.96.7%53.3%26.7%
90 days4584.233.310.370.311.33516.7%10.7%19.6%92.0109.98.2%44.3%32.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 18%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.500.600.833.618.5246.7%20.0%7.4%98.1110.89.1%72.7%27.3%
Last 15 G1543.343.465.686.487.41716.3%18.6%19.2%93.4110.817.9%57.1%28.6%
Last 30 G3092.309.478.559.461.44318.5%21.7%15.4%93.9113.411.5%57.7%38.5%
90 days71237.349.485.656.498.46317.3%19.0%16.6%95.3118.515.1%58.9%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 146 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 24%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.421.522.632.507.4848.7%17.4%10.3%96.1110.811.8%64.7%23.5%
Last 15 G1564.315.422.611.444.39014.1%15.6%18.3%93.6110.813.3%57.8%26.7%
Last 30 G30129.301.434.534.428.40617.1%17.1%15.2%93.7113.49.8%56.1%34.1%
90 days73321.317.439.575.448.42917.1%16.8%17.5%94.3118.513.0%54.6%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 10%
Yordan Alvarez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.438 / .431results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider74.791.750.003Out
Sep 25RHPSinker94.9110.86.692Single
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.598.318.408Out
Sep 24RHPFastball99.384.765.012Out
Sep 24RHPCutter92.7104.616.641Single
Sep 23RHPFastball97.1107.37.585Double
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.397.655.008Out
Sep 23LHPSinker96.3100.0-17.161Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper90.377.633.085Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.083.44.221Force out
Sep 22LHPChangeup90.1107.5201.249Out
Sep 22RHPSlider87.9101.9-3.346Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411011
Sep 24511011
Sep 23523010
Sep 22525110
Sep 20422000
Sep 19411000
Sep 18412020
Sep 17425100
Sep 16412001
Sep 15414120

Two strikes

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPwith two strikes
Jacob Lopez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider37%45%28.2%19.7%21.6%
Fastball35%38%17.6%16.1%18.6%
Cutter20%11%37.5%23.3%17.9%
Changeup7%4%9.1%5.9%18.3%
Other2%2%0.0%16.7%14.3%
Sinker1%0%–0.0%17.7%
Yordan Alvarez bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Yordan Alvarez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.0%44.1%
Whiff%19.2%22.7%
Contact%80.8%77.3%
Chase%42.8%38.2%
wOBA.232.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.418
K%17.3%
BB%16.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%35.0%
Avg EV94.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

81 PA
wOBA.329
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/100-0.12
Hard-hit%32.8%
K%16.9%
BB%16.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob LopezLHP · OAK vs HOU
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.3%9%78 strikeouts: 5.4%5%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%24.5%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%12.4%
Velo83.2
BTB Stuff93
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Slider36%10775.316.8%
Fastball35%9290.18.7%
Cutter20%7485.910.8%
Changeup7%8181.211.7%
Other2%––11.8%
Sinker1%10089.90.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19636%6%50%.700
Sep 1310216%9%32%.559
Sep 7934%2%23%.367

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Lopez OAK · LHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yordan Alvarez: every projection we've made →