← All players

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · Hitter · 7 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Yordan Alvarez · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.429.529.714.541.4585.9%17.6%9.4%97.4109.57.7%69.2%23.1%
Last 15 G1546.306.457.639.469.42617.4%21.7%19.5%92.9110.717.9%57.1%32.1%
Last 30 G3093.309.484.574.468.43818.3%22.6%15.3%93.4113.411.5%55.8%38.5%
90 days70236.346.483.654.496.46217.4%19.1%16.7%95.2118.515.2%58.6%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 24%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.333.333.333.300.4780.0%0.0%25.0%93.0107.516.7%66.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1119.278.316.500.353.33210.5%5.3%13.9%93.9109.96.2%62.5%25.0%
Last 30 G1934.303.324.515.361.32611.8%2.9%13.8%93.5109.96.9%55.2%27.6%
90 days4481.239.309.380.314.33916.0%9.9%19.3%92.0109.98.3%45.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 18%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.400.478.600.475.4644.3%13.0%13.6%96.0109.510.5%68.4%21.1%
Last 15 G1565.296.415.593.435.39915.4%16.9%17.8%93.3110.713.6%59.1%29.5%
Last 30 G30127.307.441.554.438.40716.5%17.3%14.9%93.4113.49.9%55.6%34.6%
90 days72317.316.438.578.449.43017.0%16.7%17.4%94.2118.513.2%54.6%36.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 205 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.598.318.408Out
Sep 24RHPFastball99.384.765.012Out
Sep 24RHPCutter92.7104.616.641Single
Sep 23RHPFastball97.1107.37.585Double
Sep 23RHPSweeper86.397.655.008Out
Sep 23LHPSinker96.3100.0-17.161Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper90.377.633.085Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.083.44.221Force out
Sep 22LHPChangeup90.1107.5201.249Out
Sep 22RHPSlider87.9101.9-3.346Single
Sep 22RHPSlider87.2109.5252.007Home run
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.770.335.652Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24511011
Sep 23523010
Sep 22525110
Sep 20422000
Sep 19411000
Sep 18412020
Sep 17425100
Sep 16412001
Sep 15414120
Sep 13200011
FormHot
Contact rating99Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.438 / .432results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.418
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%35.0%
K%17.3%
BB%16.0%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Yordan Alvarez · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Yordan Alvarez · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Tyler Mahle: 64.8% · 1 HSep 19 vs Grant Holmes: 66.1% · 1 HSep 20 vs Martín Pérez: 62.0% · 2 HSep 22 vs Logan Gilbert: 62.5% · 2 HSep 23 vs George Kirby: 68.6% · 2 HSep 24 vs Mason Barnett: 64.4% · 1 HSep 25 vs Jacob Lopez: 68.5% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 6 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 3.9. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit6 of 6BTB expected 3.9
Games with 2+ TB4 of 6BTB expected 2.7
Games with a HR1 of 6BTB expected 1.1
Talent gradeAwOBA .418 · K% 17.3%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Jacob Lopez68.5%46.7%19.5%not settled
Sep 24Mason Barnett64.4%40.0%21.6%5110
Sep 23George Kirby68.6%45.3%21.2%5230
Sep 22Logan Gilbert62.5%43.3%18.0%5251
Sep 20Martín Pérez62.0%43.6%14.1%4220
Sep 19Grant Holmes66.1%51.9%20.0%4110
Sep 18Tyler Mahle64.8%45.4%17.9%4120
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.