MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 5Christian Yelich
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.319wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. Christian Yelich: wOBA .366 vs league .369 (about even).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. Christian Yelich: wOBA .279 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. Christian Yelich: wOBA .342 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. Christian Yelich: wOBA .305 vs league .308 (about even).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. Christian Yelich: wOBA .363 vs league .365 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. Christian Yelich: wOBA .311 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Christian Yelich: wOBA .332 vs league .335 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christian Yelich's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Christian Yelich's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 60.9 mph at -70°Out: 80.7 mph at 29°Out: 80.4 mph at -33°Home run: 106.1 mph at 38°Out: 32.5 mph at -25°Out: 79.4 mph at -46°Out: 73.1 mph at -35°Out: 87.3 mph at -31°Out: 75.1 mph at 3°Out: 96.8 mph at 41°Out: 85.3 mph at 28°Single: 100.1 mph at 9°Out: 83.8 mph at -5°Single: 96.5 mph at 5°Out: 101.4 mph at 5°Out: 73.1 mph at -43°Out: 96.1 mph at 6°Single: 101.9 mph at 4°Out: 77.7 mph at 49°Single: 87.2 mph at 12°Out: 96.0 mph at 21°Single: 81.0 mph at 6°Out: 93.2 mph at 38°Out: 99.1 mph at 19°Out: 48.4 mph at 85°Home run: 98.1 mph at 31°Single: 98.8 mph at 15°Out: 70.4 mph at -12°Out: 96.5 mph at 25°Out: 87.2 mph at 32°Out: 104.7 mph at 35°Single: 91.9 mph at 14°Out: 61.8 mph at -9°Out: 91.0 mph at -27°Single: 104.0 mph at 2°Out: 86.3 mph at -15°Out: 94.5 mph at -19°Single: 107.9 mph at 5°Out: 101.8 mph at 2°Single: 102.5 mph at 6°
43% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.7%58.4%+3.3
2+ total bases36.3%33.5%+2.7
Home run14.5%13.0%+1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Christian Yelich hits
Christian Yelich · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .233 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 39 pitches seen.254xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .384 on 13 PA) · league .307 · 40 pitches seen.347xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .129 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 34 pitches seen.209xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .421 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 50 pitches seen.388xwOBA .482 shrunk (raw .542 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 42 pitches seen.482xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw .365 on 16 PA) · league .321 · 45 pitches seen.346xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .257 on 15 PA) · league .308 · 40 pitches seen.280xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .287 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 38 pitches seen.313xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .468 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 41 pitches seen.387xwOBA .451 shrunk (raw .524 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 133 pitches seen.451xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .234 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 79 pitches seen.258xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .238 on 22 PA) · league .263 · 103 pitches seen.247xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .246 on 42 PA) · league .274 · 194 pitches seen.252
vs RHP · 878 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 32% of 25 swings · league 22%32%Whiff 29% of 28 swings · league 20%29%Whiff 26% of 27 swings · league 19%26%Whiff 22% of 32 swings · league 10%22%Whiff 18% of 33 swings · league 9%18%Whiff 3% of 36 swings · league 11%3%Whiff 8% of 25 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 17%11%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 28%43%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 24%32%Whiff 44% of 36 swings · league 32%44%Whiff 57% of 70 swings · league 49%57%
vs RHP · 878 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 64% of 39 pitches · league 62%64%Swings at 70% of 40 pitches · league 72%70%Swings at 79% of 34 pitches · league 66%79%Swings at 64% of 50 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 79% of 42 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 80% of 45 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 63% of 40 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 74% of 38 pitches · league 68%74%Swings at 68% of 41 pitches · league 60%68%Swings at 5% of 133 pitches · league 24%5%Swings at 24% of 79 pitches · league 34%24%Swings at 35% of 103 pitches · league 40%35%Swings at 36% of 194 pitches · league 32%36%
vs RHP · 878 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Christian Yelich against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.366.36919.8%14.5%63About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.279.28232.8%28.2%18About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.342.34420.7%15.3%39About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.305.30835.1%29.4%10About league average vs these
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.363.36527.3%20.3%50About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.311.31428.8%23.9%17About league average vs these
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.332.33533.9%28.5%38About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Christian Yelich · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G414.182.357.455.357.26542.9%21.4%44.8%80.2106.120.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1441.200.293.371.293.27636.6%12.2%37.0%86.9106.19.5%42.9%38.1%
Last 30 G2985.306.388.514.399.34225.9%12.9%32.3%90.2107.99.6%46.2%32.7%
90 days66217.235.327.401.327.33524.4%11.5%27.9%89.0108.611.0%46.3%31.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 136 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 18%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.143.143.143.129.2010.0%0.0%0.0%79.5100.10.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G917.188.235.188.200.24429.4%5.9%17.2%83.3101.90.0%36.4%27.3%
Last 30 G1734.188.235.250.221.27520.6%5.9%10.8%85.0105.84.0%36.0%28.0%
90 days3866.164.215.246.212.27930.3%6.1%18.5%85.6105.89.5%40.5%26.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 14%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.167.286.333.281.24428.6%14.3%32.5%79.8106.18.3%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1558.196.276.314.266.26634.5%10.3%31.8%85.6106.16.2%40.6%34.4%
Last 30 G30119.269.345.433.348.32324.4%10.9%25.9%88.5107.97.8%42.9%31.2%
90 days67283.218.301.363.300.32225.8%10.2%25.5%88.2108.610.7%44.9%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 17%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 2%
Christian Yelich · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches8trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .335running 42 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup86.960.9-70.176Single
Sep 25RHPChangeup83.080.729.139Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball79.580.4-33.052Out
Sep 23RHPCutter85.0106.1381.190Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball91.732.5-25.269Force out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.179.4-46.103Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.473.1-35.064Out
Sep 18LHPSinker92.687.3-31.067Out
Sep 18LHPFastball90.275.13.137Out
Sep 18LHPSinker92.596.841.087Out
Sep 18LHPSinker95.985.328.067Out
Sep 18LHPSinker96.4100.19.676Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511021
Sep 23314100
Sep 22400012
Sep 20400003
Sep 18511000
Sep 16511002
Sep 15400011
Sep 13411011
Sep 12522001
Sep 11400002

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
Christian Yelich bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Christian Yelich with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.5%41.0%
Whiff%25.4%21.3%
Contact%74.6%78.7%
Chase%35.9%39.6%
wOBA.218.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.8%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.316
K%26.0%
BB%9.6%
Whiff%11.5%
Barrel%6.6%
Hard-hit%28.6%
Avg EV88.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

213 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/100-0.17
Hard-hit%29.1%
K%24.8%
BB%9.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Christian Yelich: every projection we've made →