MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 2Iván Herrera
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.335wOBA vs LHP.337xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .332 vs league .329 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .348 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .320 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .364 vs league .362 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .338 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Iván Herrera's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Iván Herrera's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 102.1 mph at 32°Out: 58.9 mph at -23°Single: 77.7 mph at 21°Out: 104.8 mph at 34°Out: 90.6 mph at -13°Out: 92.7 mph at -19°Out: 77.3 mph at 56°Home run: 107.5 mph at 22°Home run: 111.1 mph at 25°Out: 101.2 mph at -11°Double: 94.7 mph at 25°Single: 94.9 mph at 10°Single: 70.2 mph at 21°Out: 79.3 mph at -27°Out: 88.9 mph at -21°Single: 90.1 mph at 12°Out: 103.4 mph at 19°Out: 58.1 mph at -15°Out: 103.5 mph at -16°Out: 100.6 mph at 21°Out: 103.6 mph at 4°Out: 98.1 mph at -15°Out: 99.0 mph at -20°Out: 96.7 mph at 25°Out: 92.2 mph at 21°Out: 93.3 mph at 39°Out: 77.8 mph at 42°Single: 88.3 mph at 2°Out: 94.9 mph at -9°Out: 81.4 mph at 1°Out: 105.7 mph at -5°Single: 95.4 mph at 14°Out: 92.0 mph at -40°Out: 63.3 mph at -12°Out: 71.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.4 mph at -16°Single: 79.2 mph at 16°Single: 81.0 mph at 9°Double: 95.7 mph at 17°Single: 94.7 mph at 0°
38% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.6%61.3%+1.2
2+ total bases35.7%34.1%+1.6
Home run11.7%9.9%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Iván Herrera hits
Iván Herrera · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .197 shrunk (raw .105 on 6 PA) · league .243 · 17 pitches seen.197xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .197 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 19 pitches seen.267xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .527 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 21 pitches seen.322xwOBA .217 shrunk (raw .107 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.217xwOBA .431 shrunk (raw .486 on 10 PA) · league .385 · 30 pitches seen.431xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .270 on 11 PA) · league .340 · 39 pitches seen.307xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .412 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 29 pitches seen.324xwOBA .385 shrunk (raw .446 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 27 pitches seen.385xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .336 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 22 pitches seen.310xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .334 on 5 PA) · league .302 · 44 pitches seen.311xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .299 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 69 pitches seen.329xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .442 on 22 PA) · league .289 · 111 pitches seen.388xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .374 on 12 PA) · league .257 · 64 pitches seen.315
vs LHP · 520 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 19%8%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 23%8%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 10% of 21 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 17%12%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 14%19%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 16%25%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 25%15%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 29%25%Whiff 46% of 39 swings · league 48%46%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 34%14%
vs LHP · 520 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 63%71%Swings at 53% of 19 pitches · league 71%53%Swings at 62% of 21 pitches · league 64%62%Swings at 54% of 28 pitches · league 67%54%Swings at 70% of 30 pitches · league 76%70%Swings at 72% of 39 pitches · league 72%72%Swings at 59% of 29 pitches · league 59%59%Swings at 59% of 27 pitches · league 68%59%Swings at 73% of 22 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 30% of 44 pitches · league 30%30%Swings at 12% of 69 pitches · league 26%12%Swings at 35% of 111 pitches · league 31%35%Swings at 33% of 64 pitches · league 41%33%
vs LHP · 520 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Iván Herrera against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.332.32916.2%20.0%7Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.348.34611.9%17.7%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.320.31814.9%21.0%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.364.3628.9%13.1%21About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.338.33627.8%27.8%13About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Iván Herrera · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.500.5711.500.800.66342.9%14.3%21.4%97.0111.166.7%66.7%100.0%
Last 15 G915.385.467.923.563.45926.7%6.7%15.6%94.2111.122.2%33.3%55.6%
Last 30 G2036.355.444.581.443.36122.2%11.1%18.8%91.1111.18.7%30.4%39.1%
90 days54113.260.372.396.350.34918.6%12.4%18.3%88.5111.56.7%33.3%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 24%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.077.143.308.193.29150.0%0.0%42.3%88.6107.533.3%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1548.125.250.200.262.31629.2%8.3%26.3%89.0107.57.7%42.3%30.8%
Last 30 G2995.205.295.337.326.32826.3%8.4%22.1%89.2108.56.9%44.8%34.5%
90 days75234.217.278.344.297.28024.8%5.6%20.9%89.6109.84.5%41.7%28.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 21%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.684.395.41547.6%4.8%35.0%91.4111.144.4%44.4%44.4%
Last 15 G1563.189.302.377.335.35128.6%7.9%23.1%90.3111.111.4%40.0%37.1%
Last 30 G30131.246.336.404.358.33725.2%9.2%21.1%89.7111.17.4%40.7%35.8%
90 days79347.231.308.360.314.30222.8%7.8%20.0%89.2111.55.2%39.0%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 231 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 22%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 10%
Iván Herrera · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating47Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.308 / .312results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker93.2102.1321.083Home run
Sep 24RHPSinker96.158.9-23.050Out
Sep 24LHPSinker96.677.721.860Single
Sep 23RHPSlider88.3104.8341.440Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper89.090.6-13.145Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter84.392.7-19.133Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker91.477.356.054Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.6107.5221.517Home run
Sep 20LHPFastball97.8111.1252.000Home run
Sep 19LHPSlider84.9101.2-11.198Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.694.725.274Double
Sep 19LHPSinker90.794.910.689Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414103
Sep 24411002
Sep 23500010
Sep 22400004
Sep 20428201
Sep 19634001
Sep 18411001
Sep 16100010
Sep 15300001
Sep 14400010

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
Iván Herrera bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Iván Herrera with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.6%41.5%
Whiff%17.1%21.6%
Contact%82.9%78.4%
Chase%39.7%39.9%
wOBA.268.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes13.2%17.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.327
K%21.6%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.2%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%26.3%
Avg EV89.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

110 PA
wOBA.335
xwOBA vs this mix.337against pitches like his
RV/1000.32
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%18.3%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Iván Herrera: every projection we've made →