MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 3Jordan Walker
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.362wOBA vs LHP.369xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .337 vs league .329 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .354 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .326 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .371 vs league .362 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .344 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jordan Walker's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jordan Walker's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 110.2 mph at -27°Home run: 105.9 mph at 24°Out: 104.7 mph at -25°Single: 77.8 mph at 33°Out: 99.5 mph at 2°Out: 81.4 mph at 77°Out: 106.6 mph at 40°Out: 71.6 mph at 58°Out: 70.4 mph at -38°Out: 110.0 mph at -4°Out: 95.2 mph at -30°Out: 112.1 mph at 17°Out: 106.0 mph at -18°Out: 98.5 mph at -41°Single: 117.2 mph at -1°Out: 105.8 mph at 21°Out: 95.7 mph at -6°Out: 111.0 mph at 14°Single: 85.2 mph at 12°Out: 91.4 mph at 35°Out: 92.3 mph at -23°Out: 96.7 mph at -17°Single: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 88.2 mph at 34°Double: 115.4 mph at 6°Out: 95.4 mph at -11°Out: 83.5 mph at -4°Out: 83.7 mph at -25°Out: 87.0 mph at 42°Out: 98.7 mph at -21°Single: 101.8 mph at -14°Out: 108.1 mph at -5°Out: 69.9 mph at 75°Out: 61.5 mph at -31°Out: 103.0 mph at -14°Out: 43.4 mph at -51°Out: 85.6 mph at 45°Out: 83.5 mph at 4°Single: 100.7 mph at -10°Out: 107.4 mph at -5°
60% hit 95+ mph13% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.9%59.2%+1.8
2+ total bases36.6%34.5%+2.2
Home run13.7%11.5%+2.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jordan Walker hits
Jordan Walker · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .256 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.247xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .373 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 9 pitches seen.302xwOBA .255 shrunk (raw .258 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 12 pitches seen.255xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .688 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.403xwOBA .512 shrunk (raw .682 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 20 pitches seen.512xwOBA .386 shrunk (raw .495 on 5 PA) · league .340 · 11 pitches seen.386xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .103 on 9 PA) · league .273 · 17 pitches seen.200xwOBA .382 shrunk (raw .437 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 14 pitches seen.382xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .296 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 17 pitches seen.298xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .172 on 10 PA) · league .302 · 42 pitches seen.243xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .333 on 12 PA) · league .346 · 49 pitches seen.339xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .432 on 11 PA) · league .289 · 81 pitches seen.357xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .448 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 60 pitches seen.339
vs LHP · 358 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 63% of 8 swings · league 21%63%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 23%29%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 10%20%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 11%20%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 14%8%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 16%13%Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 25%30%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 29%39%Whiff 46% of 26 swings · league 48%46%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 34%33%
vs LHP · 358 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 89% of 9 pitches · league 63%89%Swings at 89% of 9 pitches · league 71%89%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 64%58%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 67%71%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 46% of 11 pitches · league 72%46%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 59%71%Swings at 86% of 14 pitches · league 68%86%Swings at 47% of 17 pitches · league 66%47%Swings at 55% of 42 pitches · league 30%55%Swings at 37% of 49 pitches · league 26%37%Swings at 32% of 81 pitches · league 31%32%Swings at 20% of 60 pitches · league 41%20%
vs LHP · 358 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jordan Walker against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.337.32918.9%20.0%9About league average vs these
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.354.34624.3%17.7%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.326.31828.0%21.0%11About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.371.36218.5%13.1%13About league average vs these
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.344.33632.9%27.8%12About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jordan Walker · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.02666.7%0.0%62.5%95.295.20.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G711.100.182.100.145.21854.5%9.1%50.0%100.6112.125.0%75.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1326.240.269.280.248.26946.2%3.8%41.2%93.7112.17.7%61.5%38.5%
90 days4391.244.352.423.363.37525.3%14.3%29.5%92.8115.010.9%52.7%43.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 55 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 27%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.143.250.357.269.35125.0%12.5%36.7%93.8110.220.0%60.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1442.132.214.237.208.29228.6%9.5%33.8%96.2117.215.4%61.5%15.4%
Last 30 G2893.176.237.294.254.26832.3%7.5%36.2%93.5117.212.5%58.9%17.9%
90 days73230.254.300.423.324.30227.0%5.7%32.2%91.2117.212.4%47.7%27.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 16%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.118.211.294.226.30031.6%10.5%42.1%93.9110.218.2%63.6%9.1%
Last 15 G1553.125.208.208.195.27734.0%9.4%37.5%96.8117.216.7%63.3%16.7%
Last 30 G30119.191.244.291.253.26835.3%6.7%37.3%93.6117.211.6%59.4%21.7%
90 days77321.251.315.423.335.32226.5%8.1%31.4%91.6117.212.0%49.0%31.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 208 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 19%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
Jordan Walker · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating60Average
Last 100 pitches35trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker100.5110.2-27.113Out
Sep 25RHPCutter87.4105.9241.727Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.4104.7-25.157Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.677.833.085Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.999.52.432Out
Sep 23RHPSlider82.681.477.005Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.7106.6401.150Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.471.658.023Out
Sep 22RHPSlider91.370.4-38.111Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.6110.0-4.423Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.395.2-30.077Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.4112.1171.013Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414102
Sep 24400012
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300000
Sep 20400011
Sep 19600004
Sep 18311001
Sep 16500022
Sep 15300001
Sep 14411011

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
Jordan Walker bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jordan Walker with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.5%41.5%
Whiff%23.9%21.6%
Contact%76.1%78.4%
Chase%39.5%39.9%
wOBA.248.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.1%17.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.318
K%26.8%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%15.4%
Barrel%7.2%
Hard-hit%30.8%
Avg EV91.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

89 PA
wOBA.362
xwOBA vs this mix.369against pitches like his
RV/1000.48
Hard-hit%31.8%
K%23.8%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jordan Walker: every projection we've made →