MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 4Leo Bernal
Switch hitterTalent grade BPowerCold
.317wOBA vs LHP.323xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .328 vs league .329 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .345 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .317 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .361 vs league .362 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .334 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Leo Bernal's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Leo Bernal's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 104.4 mph at 16°Out: 66.6 mph at -6°Single: 94.9 mph at 8°Single: 96.8 mph at 7°Out: 87.4 mph at 31°Out: 61.8 mph at 75°Out: 67.7 mph at -41°Single: 84.1 mph at 8°Out: 91.3 mph at 44°Out: 90.0 mph at 7°Home run: 108.5 mph at 26°Single: 85.8 mph at -4°Out: 97.1 mph at -11°Out: 80.4 mph at 43°Out: 78.7 mph at 47°Single: 77.3 mph at 16°Single: 96.4 mph at 1°Single: 75.3 mph at 25°Out: 103.1 mph at 40°Single: 103.0 mph at 17°Out: 96.3 mph at 4°Out: 84.5 mph at -5°Out: 92.5 mph at 0°Out: 82.7 mph at 42°Out: 103.0 mph at -32°Out: 100.0 mph at 28°Double: 107.5 mph at 17°Single: 104.0 mph at 13°Single: 79.6 mph at 21°Out: 98.5 mph at 34°Out: 84.6 mph at 43°Home run: 106.2 mph at 23°Out: 97.6 mph at -14°Out: 98.1 mph at 21°Out: 78.4 mph at 9°Single: 102.3 mph at 8°Double: 102.6 mph at 16°Single: 95.7 mph at 11°Home run: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 88.7 mph at 27°
50% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.2%65.0%+1.2
2+ total bases39.0%38.1%+0.9
Home run13.5%13.2%+0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Leo Bernal hits
Leo Bernal · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .320 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seen.254xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .831 on 2 PA) · league .296 · 5 pitches seen.372xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .564 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 4 pitches seen.298xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .341 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 6 pitches seen.316xwOBA .427 shrunk (raw .596 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 6 pitches seen.427xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 2 pitches seen.314xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .096 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 8 pitches seen.221xwOBA .372 shrunk (raw .642 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seen.372xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 10 pitches seen.279xwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 15 pitches seenxwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .054 on 4 PA) · league .289 · 27 pitches seen.230xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 3 pitches seen.291
vs LHP · 94 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 21%20%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 10%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 11%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 14%50%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 16%100%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 29%33%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 48%33%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 34%
vs LHP · 94 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 100% of 5 pitches · league 71%100%Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 67%67%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 0% of 2 pitches · league 72%0%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 59%75%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 68%100%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 40% of 10 pitches · league 30%40%Swings at 20% of 15 pitches · league 26%20%Swings at 33% of 27 pitches · league 31%33%Swings at 0% of 3 pitches · league 41%0%
vs LHP · 94 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Leo Bernal against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.328.32921.3%20.0%3Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.345.34615.7%17.7%9About league average vs these
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.317.31819.0%21.0%3Little history vs this shape
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.361.36211.7%13.1%3Little history vs this shape
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.334.33627.1%27.8%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Leo Bernal · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.000.250.000.175.33625.0%25.0%33.3%85.5104.40.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G918.235.278.294.258.27027.8%5.6%23.5%91.2104.40.0%58.3%50.0%
Last 30 G1226.280.308.320.283.33126.9%3.8%21.3%94.8107.60.0%72.2%55.6%
90 days1226.280.308.320.283.33126.9%3.8%21.3%94.8107.60.0%72.2%55.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 18 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 39%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.267.267.467.373.27240.0%0.0%19.5%86.9108.511.1%22.2%44.4%
Last 15 G1544.302.318.535.401.37225.0%2.3%20.2%91.1108.515.6%46.9%43.8%
Last 30 G2268.297.338.516.391.34922.1%5.9%19.7%91.8109.810.2%51.0%38.8%
90 days2268.297.338.516.391.34922.1%5.9%19.7%91.8109.810.2%51.0%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 18%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.222.263.389.332.28536.8%5.3%21.3%86.7108.59.1%27.3%45.5%
Last 15 G1562.283.306.467.360.34225.8%3.2%21.1%91.1108.511.4%50.0%45.5%
Last 30 G2294.292.330.461.361.34423.4%5.3%20.1%92.6109.87.5%56.7%43.3%
90 days2294.292.330.461.361.34423.4%5.3%20.1%92.6109.87.5%56.7%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 24%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 3%
Leo Bernal · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.352 / .363results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker93.0104.416.591Out
Sep 25LHPSinker91.266.6-6.056Out
Sep 25RHPCutter88.894.98.576Single
Sep 25RHPFastball97.196.87.564Single
Sep 24RHPSlider87.987.431.016Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.461.875.006Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.667.7-41.116Out
Sep 23RHPCutter92.284.18.410Single
Sep 22RHPFastball98.191.344.008Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball76.290.07.422Error
Sep 20RHPSlider92.1108.5261.956Home run
Sep 19LHPFastball93.385.8-4.126Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 24400003
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300002
Sep 20414111
Sep 19611002
Sep 18433001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15400000
Sep 14434000

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
Leo Bernal bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Leo Bernal with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.3%41.5%
Whiff%21.7%21.6%
Contact%78.3%78.4%
Chase%38.0%39.9%
wOBA.247.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.0%17.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.327
K%23.5%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%30.8%
Avg EV90.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

24 PA
wOBA.317
xwOBA vs this mix.323against pitches like his
RV/100-0.02
Hard-hit%34.4%
K%24.9%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Leo Bernal: every projection we've made →