MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 8Pedro Pagés
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.298wOBA vs LHP.294xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Pedro Pagés: wOBA .326 vs league .329 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. Pedro Pagés: wOBA .343 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Pedro Pagés: wOBA .315 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Pedro Pagés: wOBA .359 vs league .362 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. Pedro Pagés: wOBA .332 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Pedro Pagés's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Pedro Pagés's last 38 balls in playHit (12)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 74.7 mph at 53°Out: 98.4 mph at 1°Single: 56.6 mph at -67°Single: 90.1 mph at 9°Out: 92.6 mph at 30°Out: 62.5 mph at -17°Single: 94.2 mph at 3°Out: 90.2 mph at 59°Out: 99.4 mph at 44°Single: 104.5 mph at -9°Out: 89.2 mph at -3°Out: 98.5 mph at 4°Out: 80.8 mph at 48°Single: 96.6 mph at 8°Out: 102.6 mph at 17°Single: 63.0 mph at 32°Out: 80.4 mph at 81°Single: 66.3 mph at 25°Out: 71.9 mph at -41°Out: 81.4 mph at -19°Single: 105.8 mph at 11°Out: 94.7 mph at 42°Single: 98.1 mph at 15°Out: 64.6 mph at -30°Out: 70.0 mph at -3°Out: 79.1 mph at 86°Out: 75.5 mph at 84°Out: 103.6 mph at 3°Single: 105.7 mph at 10°Out: 90.9 mph at 63°Out: 90.9 mph at 45°Out: 101.8 mph at -7°Out: 70.1 mph at 5°Out: 77.9 mph at 80°Single: 63.1 mph at 14°Single: 102.4 mph at -4°Out: 50.9 mph at -55°Out: 106.1 mph at 0°
34% hit 95+ mph26% in the sweet spot32% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.3%51.5%+0.8
2+ total bases25.8%24.9%+0.9
Home run7.2%6.4%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.0
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Pedro Pagés hits
Pedro Pagés · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .197 shrunk (raw .013 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seen.197xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .086 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 7 pitches seen.254xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .758 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seen.293xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .411 shrunk (raw .490 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 12 pitches seen.411xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .035 on 1 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.317xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .143 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 10 pitches seen.247xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .208 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 12 pitches seen.314xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .216 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 7 pitches seen.293xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .506 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 11 pitches seen.343xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .465 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 29 pitches seen.370xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .248 on 7 PA) · league .289 · 35 pitches seen.274xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .247 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 33 pitches seen.253
vs LHP · 187 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 21%40%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 16%50%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 25%33%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 29%25%Whiff 53% of 15 swings · league 48%53%Whiff 50% of 12 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 187 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 4 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 71%71%Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 64%63%Swings at 50% of 6 pitches · league 67%50%Swings at 92% of 12 pitches · league 76%92%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 72%69%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 59%60%Swings at 42% of 12 pitches · league 68%42%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 27% of 11 pitches · league 30%27%Swings at 14% of 29 pitches · league 26%14%Swings at 43% of 35 pitches · league 31%43%Swings at 36% of 33 pitches · league 41%36%
vs LHP · 187 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Pedro Pagés against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.326.32921.0%20.0%2Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.343.34612.9%17.7%12About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.315.31815.9%21.0%5Little history vs this shape
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.359.3629.5%13.1%9About league average vs these
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.332.33631.4%27.8%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Pedro Pagés · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.375.375.375.338.21125.0%0.0%26.3%79.498.40.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1332.286.375.286.312.27625.0%12.5%26.2%84.6105.80.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 30 G1943.237.326.237.276.27127.9%11.6%23.3%86.3105.80.0%34.6%26.9%
90 days1943.237.326.237.276.27127.9%11.6%23.3%86.3105.80.0%34.6%26.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 15%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.000.250.000.175.22250.0%25.0%66.7%92.692.60.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G611.100.182.100.145.19545.5%9.1%31.6%87.099.40.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 30 G1222.143.182.143.155.15240.9%4.5%33.3%83.5106.10.0%33.3%25.0%
90 days1222.143.182.143.155.15240.9%4.5%33.3%83.5106.10.0%33.3%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 8%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 25%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.273.333.273.283.21433.3%8.3%31.8%81.398.40.0%14.3%28.6%
Last 15 G1543.237.326.237.270.25530.2%11.6%27.5%85.1105.80.0%32.0%32.0%
Last 30 G2565.203.277.203.234.23032.3%9.2%26.7%85.4106.10.0%34.2%26.3%
90 days2565.203.277.203.234.23032.3%9.2%26.7%85.4106.10.0%34.2%26.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 13%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 18%
Pedro Pagés · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating3Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches14trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.240 / .235results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup88.374.753.101Out
Sep 19LHPFastball93.198.41.396Out
Sep 19LHPSweeper83.456.6-67.216Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup84.290.19.516Single
Sep 16RHPSlider88.892.630.189Out
Sep 3LHPFastball96.462.5-17.033Out
Sep 3LHPSlider90.394.23.423Single
Aug 27LHPFastball92.390.259.013Out
Aug 27RHPFastball95.399.444.098Out
Aug 23LHPSinker95.5104.5-9.258Single
Aug 23LHPSinker93.789.2-3.182Out
Aug 23RHPSinker101.398.54.460Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 19422001
Sep 16300011
Sep 15100001
Sep 3211000
Aug 27400002
Aug 26100010
Aug 23411001
Aug 21311010
Aug 18411011

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
Pedro Pagés bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Pedro Pagés with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.9%41.5%
Whiff%22.5%21.6%
Contact%77.5%78.4%
Chase%40.2%39.9%
wOBA.243.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.7%17.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.288
K%27.5%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%11.0%
Barrel%3.4%
Hard-hit%23.9%
Avg EV87.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

42 PA
wOBA.298
xwOBA vs this mix.294against pitches like his
RV/100-0.60
Hard-hit%23.7%
K%25.5%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Pedro Pagés: every projection we've made →