MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 9Victor Scott II
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.291wOBA vs LHP.301xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Victor Scott II: wOBA .249 vs league .252 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. Victor Scott II: wOBA .344 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Victor Scott II: wOBA .311 vs league .313 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Victor Scott II: wOBA .319 vs league .321 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. Victor Scott II: wOBA .316 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Victor Scott II's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Victor Scott II's last 9 balls in playHit (2)Out (7)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 64.9 mph at 55°Single: 73.6 mph at 19°Out: 93.7 mph at -20°Out: 86.4 mph at -36°Out: 95.8 mph at -48°Out: 80.8 mph at -25°Out: 92.2 mph at 19°Out: 83.0 mph at 49°Single: 106.3 mph at 20°
22% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot22% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.7%50.7%-0.1
2+ total bases24.0%24.4%-0.4
Home run4.9%5.3%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Victor Scott II hits
Victor Scott II · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .013 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 2 pitches seen.285xwOBA .360 shrunk (raw .058 on 1 PA) · league .385 · 4 pitches seen.360xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .273 · 1 pitches seen.252xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .149 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seen.335xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .299 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .302 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .302 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .346 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .346 · 0 pitches seenxwOBA .289 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .289 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 1 pitches seen.237
vs LHP · 18 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff – of 0 swings · league 19%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 21%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 23%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 10%33%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 17%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 16%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 25%Whiff – of 0 swings · league 29%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 48%100%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 34%100%
vs LHP · 18 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 63%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 71%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 64%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 67%100%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 59%0%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 66%Swings at 0% of 1 pitches · league 30%0%Swings at – of 0 pitches · league 26%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 31%33%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 41%100%
vs LHP · 18 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Victor Scott II against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.249.25232.0%31.4%2Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.344.34718.9%17.8%1Little history vs this shape
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.311.31332.3%30.7%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.319.32112.6%11.7%1Little history vs this shape
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.316.31916.0%15.4%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Victor Scott II · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.000.000.000.000.04440.0%0.0%40.0%81.793.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G25.000.000.000.000.04440.0%0.0%40.0%81.793.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G25.000.000.000.000.04440.0%0.0%40.0%81.793.70.0%0.0%0.0%
90 days25.000.000.000.000.04440.0%0.0%40.0%81.793.70.0%0.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 33%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G44.250.250.250.225.3710.0%0.0%0.0%85.695.80.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G66.333.333.333.300.4100.0%0.0%0.0%88.6106.316.7%33.3%50.0%
Last 30 G66.333.333.333.300.4100.0%0.0%0.0%88.6106.316.7%33.3%50.0%
90 days66.333.333.333.300.4100.0%0.0%0.0%88.6106.316.7%33.3%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 50%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.111.111.111.100.18922.2%0.0%25.0%83.995.80.0%14.3%28.6%
Last 15 G711.182.182.182.164.24418.2%0.0%19.0%86.3106.311.1%22.2%33.3%
Last 30 G711.182.182.182.164.24418.2%0.0%19.0%86.3106.311.1%22.2%33.3%
90 days711.182.182.182.164.24418.2%0.0%19.0%86.3106.311.1%22.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 9 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 33%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 11%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.118 / .210running 92 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit1/6
2+ total bases0/6
Home run0/6

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 9 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPCutter88.564.955.013Out
Sep 25RHPSinker98.873.619.859Single
Sep 19LHPCurveball81.693.7-20.149Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball83.786.4-36.058Double play
Sep 18RHPFastball95.895.8-48.150Out
Sep 15RHPFastball94.780.8-25.071Out
Sep 13RHPChangeup79.692.219.403Out
Sep 6RHPFastball95.083.049.015Out
Sep 1RHPOffspeed52.7106.320.961Single
Last 7 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311001
Sep 19300001
Sep 18100000
Sep 15100000
Sep 13100000
Sep 6100000
Sep 1111000

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
Victor Scott II bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Victor Scott II with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.1%44.1%
Whiff%23.3%22.7%
Contact%76.7%77.3%
Chase%38.4%38.2%
wOBA.223.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.0%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.286
K%23.6%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%18.3%
Avg EV81.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

3 PA
wOBA.291
xwOBA vs this mix.301against pitches like his
RV/100-0.71
Hard-hit%25.0%
K%22.7%
BB%6.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Victor Scott II: every projection we've made →