MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 7Royce Lewis
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.293wOBA vs RHP.309xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Royce Lewis: wOBA .330 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Royce Lewis: wOBA .280 vs league .290 (about even).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Royce Lewis: wOBA .273 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Royce Lewis: wOBA .276 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Royce Lewis: wOBA .335 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Royce Lewis's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Royce Lewis's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 75.9 mph at 21°Out: 90.4 mph at 58°Out: 82.3 mph at 77°Single: 93.0 mph at 11°Out: 67.6 mph at 13°Out: 95.4 mph at 8°Out: 73.8 mph at 77°Single: 82.6 mph at 18°Out: 81.0 mph at -15°Double: 106.7 mph at -2°Out: 97.0 mph at 33°Single: 85.6 mph at 12°Out: 88.4 mph at 51°Out: 74.7 mph at -3°Single: 94.9 mph at 6°Out: 105.0 mph at -12°Out: 78.6 mph at 69°Out: 86.4 mph at -22°Out: 104.3 mph at 40°Out: 85.3 mph at 27°Out: 76.4 mph at 1°Out: 103.8 mph at 36°Out: 83.2 mph at 44°Out: 86.8 mph at 33°Out: 74.7 mph at 5°Single: 100.6 mph at 2°Out: 95.0 mph at 30°Out: 71.0 mph at 54°Single: 92.5 mph at 13°Out: 91.1 mph at -12°Out: 82.9 mph at 53°Double: 105.1 mph at 14°Out: 71.8 mph at 75°Out: 102.3 mph at 9°Out: 97.9 mph at 26°Out: 85.3 mph at 73°Out: 107.4 mph at -3°Out: 83.2 mph at 74°Out: 91.3 mph at 9°Out: 86.9 mph at -19°
30% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.2%59.2%-2.1
2+ total bases31.0%32.6%-1.7
Home run9.3%10.6%-1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Royce Lewis hits
Royce Lewis · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .622 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.390xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .163 on 16 PA) · league .307 · 40 pitches seen.225xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .376 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 32 pitches seen.301xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .419 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 34 pitches seen.387xwOBA .418 shrunk (raw .440 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.418xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .253 on 18 PA) · league .321 · 49 pitches seen.280xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .351 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.325xwOBA .394 shrunk (raw .424 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 45 pitches seen.394xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .283 on 23 PA) · league .292 · 55 pitches seen.286xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .353 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 65 pitches seen.366xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .144 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 84 pitches seen.204xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .319 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 59 pitches seen.288xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .261 on 50 PA) · league .274 · 277 pitches seen.264
vs RHP · 844 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 22%26%Whiff 27% of 33 swings · league 20%27%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 19%15%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 14% of 44 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 18% of 38 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 14%6%Whiff 15% of 33 swings · league 13%15%Whiff 32% of 37 swings · league 17%32%Whiff 43% of 21 swings · league 28%43%Whiff 30% of 33 swings · league 24%30%Whiff 55% of 22 swings · league 32%55%Whiff 60% of 87 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 844 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 79% of 29 pitches · league 62%79%Swings at 83% of 40 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 63% of 32 pitches · league 66%63%Swings at 88% of 34 pitches · league 70%88%Swings at 82% of 54 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 78% of 49 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 65%86%Swings at 73% of 45 pitches · league 68%73%Swings at 67% of 55 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 32% of 65 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 39% of 84 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 37% of 59 pitches · league 40%37%Swings at 31% of 277 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 844 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Royce Lewis against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.330.34026.5%20.3%48About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.280.29037.2%30.8%35About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.273.28336.8%29.7%18About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.276.28634.8%27.8%33About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.335.34516.5%12.1%42About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Royce Lewis · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.154.154.154.138.19146.2%0.0%41.4%82.495.40.0%14.3%57.1%
Last 15 G1439.108.128.108.133.22935.9%2.6%36.4%88.5107.44.2%29.2%37.5%
Last 30 G2983.167.193.231.210.26525.3%3.6%30.1%88.3109.65.1%30.5%30.5%
90 days70213.227.282.371.294.31224.4%7.0%30.5%90.6110.07.6%39.3%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 21%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 21%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.375.375.500.381.30125.0%0.0%25.0%90.4106.70.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G821.238.238.333.248.22223.8%0.0%22.5%88.4106.70.0%31.2%25.0%
Last 30 G1837.222.243.278.232.21921.6%2.7%23.5%87.8106.73.6%32.1%28.6%
90 days4587.256.299.402.317.30023.0%5.7%28.5%87.5109.69.7%37.1%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 26%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 18%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.238.238.286.231.23338.1%0.0%35.6%86.1106.70.0%23.1%46.2%
Last 15 G1560.155.167.190.173.22731.7%1.7%32.0%88.5107.42.5%30.0%32.5%
Last 30 G30120.184.208.246.217.25124.2%3.3%28.1%88.1109.64.6%31.0%29.9%
90 days73300.236.287.380.301.30824.0%6.7%30.0%89.7110.08.2%38.6%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 22%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 20%
Royce Lewis · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating58Average
Last 100 pitches2trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.297 / .326running 28 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider93.775.921.900Single
Sep 25RHPFastball97.490.458.008Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.782.377.009Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.793.011.676Single
Sep 23RHPCutter89.567.613.329Force out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.095.48.576Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.173.877.003Out
Sep 20LHPFastball88.582.618.903Single
Sep 20LHPCutter89.081.0-15.059Out
Sep 19LHPSlider87.6106.7-2.426Double
Sep 19LHPSweeper79.397.033.335Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball84.785.612.654Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411002
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300001
Sep 20511003
Sep 19523001
Sep 18411000
Sep 17500004
Sep 16500001
Sep 15411000
Sep 13200000

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Royce Lewis bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Royce Lewis with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.0%42.4%
Whiff%24.0%22.2%
Contact%76.0%77.8%
Chase%40.0%39.9%
wOBA.220.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.4%24.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.301
K%23.3%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%14.9%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%27.2%
Avg EV89.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

213 PA
wOBA.293
xwOBA vs this mix.309against pitches like his
RV/100-0.72
Hard-hit%27.1%
K%23.8%
BB%6.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Royce Lewis: every projection we've made →