MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 5Ryan Jeffers
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.318wOBA vs RHP.306xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Ryan Jeffers: wOBA .339 vs league .340 (about even).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Ryan Jeffers: wOBA .290 vs league .290 (about even).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Ryan Jeffers: wOBA .283 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Ryan Jeffers: wOBA .286 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Ryan Jeffers: wOBA .344 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ryan Jeffers's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ryan Jeffers's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.4 mph at 52°Single: 93.3 mph at 12°Out: 67.2 mph at 0°Single: 95.8 mph at -6°Out: 90.3 mph at 43°Out: 83.5 mph at 83°Out: 52.8 mph at 10°Out: 84.2 mph at 43°Out: 97.8 mph at 19°Out: 65.9 mph at 7°Out: 101.0 mph at -21°Out: 97.1 mph at -1°Out: 68.8 mph at -20°Out: 104.3 mph at 18°Single: 97.7 mph at 14°Out: 74.1 mph at 3°Out: 95.1 mph at 61°Out: 80.4 mph at 39°Out: 50.6 mph at 15°Out: 88.2 mph at 40°Out: 82.3 mph at 30°Single: 102.0 mph at 1°Out: 93.5 mph at 34°Out: 92.4 mph at -8°Single: 95.5 mph at -13°Double: 99.6 mph at 12°Out: 93.3 mph at 25°Out: 80.7 mph at 24°Out: 64.0 mph at -4°Out: 104.6 mph at 28°Out: 103.3 mph at 1°Out: 107.4 mph at 3°Home run: 105.6 mph at 30°Out: 86.1 mph at 41°Out: 49.4 mph at 9°Out: 101.7 mph at -11°Out: 98.3 mph at -8°Out: 86.0 mph at 36°Out: 72.0 mph at -41°Double: 103.6 mph at 18°
45% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit60.3%61.0%-0.8
2+ total bases33.8%34.3%-0.5
Home run9.4%10.3%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ryan Jeffers hits
Ryan Jeffers · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .598 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 18 pitches seen.355xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .182 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 20 pitches seen.261xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .413 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 16 pitches seen.313xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .111 on 7 PA) · league .342 · 18 pitches seen.257xwOBA .412 shrunk (raw .432 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 35 pitches seen.412xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .377 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 45 pitches seen.349xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .067 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.237xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .303 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 38 pitches seen.326xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .234 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 37 pitches seen.264xwOBA .472 shrunk (raw .635 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 31 pitches seen.472xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .208 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 54 pitches seen.244xwOBA .229 shrunk (raw .161 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 45 pitches seen.229xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .264 on 33 PA) · league .274 · 187 pitches seen.267
vs RHP · 563 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 22%0%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 19%8%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 13% of 24 swings · league 11%13%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 13%9%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 17%10%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 24%12%Whiff 43% of 14 swings · league 32%43%Whiff 41% of 54 swings · league 49%41%
vs RHP · 563 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 81% of 16 pitches · league 66%81%Swings at 50% of 18 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 69% of 35 pitches · league 76%69%Swings at 53% of 45 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 65%63%Swings at 61% of 38 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 60%54%Swings at 36% of 31 pitches · league 24%36%Swings at 32% of 54 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 31% of 45 pitches · league 40%31%Swings at 29% of 187 pitches · league 32%29%
vs RHP · 563 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ryan Jeffers against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.339.34013.6%20.3%42About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.290.29026.7%30.8%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.283.28323.1%29.7%14About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.286.28624.1%27.8%17About league average vs these
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.344.3458.2%12.1%40About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ryan Jeffers · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.091.083.091.075.19033.3%0.0%30.4%88.6104.30.0%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1332.107.188.143.189.26528.1%6.2%25.0%89.3104.65.0%45.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2672.200.264.446.326.32122.2%6.9%18.9%88.9108.314.0%46.0%40.0%
90 days49137.218.285.411.315.30219.7%7.3%18.1%86.9109.68.2%39.8%33.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 98 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.222.200.16822.2%0.0%23.5%84.0101.00.0%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1227.160.222.280.223.24725.9%7.4%19.4%85.8107.45.6%44.4%27.8%
Last 30 G2144.154.250.256.232.27420.5%11.4%13.8%86.0108.13.3%40.0%26.7%
90 days3780.235.350.382.331.32520.0%15.0%12.4%87.0108.13.8%38.5%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 25%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.150.143.150.129.18128.6%0.0%27.5%86.4104.30.0%46.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1559.132.203.208.204.25727.1%6.8%22.8%87.6107.45.3%44.7%34.2%
Last 30 G30116.183.259.375.291.30421.6%8.6%17.3%87.8108.310.0%43.8%35.0%
90 days54217.224.309.401.321.31019.8%10.1%16.3%86.9109.66.7%39.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 7%
Ryan Jeffers · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .331results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker96.896.452.009Out
Sep 25RHPSlider93.093.312.836Single
Sep 25RHPFastball89.967.20.102Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.795.8-6.214Single
Sep 23LHPFastball92.790.343.015Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.083.583.008Out
Sep 19LHPFastball94.452.810.100Out
Sep 19LHPFastball94.484.243.017Out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.697.819.380Out
Sep 19LHPSlider86.665.97.195Out
Sep 19LHPCutter88.4101.0-21.102Out
Sep 18RHPFastball93.697.1-1.309Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 23411002
Sep 21400003
Sep 19500000
Sep 18411000
Sep 17100010
Sep 16500013
Sep 14400001
Sep 13400002
Sep 11411001

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Ryan Jeffers bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ryan Jeffers with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.5%42.4%
Whiff%16.9%22.2%
Contact%83.1%77.8%
Chase%39.4%39.9%
wOBA.247.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.9%24.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.329
K%19.9%
BB%10.3%
Whiff%7.1%
Barrel%4.4%
Hard-hit%27.4%
Avg EV87.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

133 PA
wOBA.318
xwOBA vs this mix.306against pitches like his
RV/100-0.42
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%19.9%
BB%10.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ryan Jeffers: every projection we've made →