MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 6Walker Jenkins
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.360wOBA vs RHP.330xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Walker Jenkins: wOBA .343 vs league .335 (about even).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Walker Jenkins: wOBA .341 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Walker Jenkins: wOBA .289 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Walker Jenkins: wOBA .325 vs league .318 (about even).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Walker Jenkins: wOBA .356 vs league .349 (about even).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Walker Jenkins's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Walker Jenkins's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 86.2 mph at 17°Out: 90.0 mph at 11°Out: 73.5 mph at 3°Out: 96.8 mph at 43°Single: 89.0 mph at 6°Out: 90.2 mph at -1°Out: 79.1 mph at 74°Out: 94.7 mph at 24°Home run: 102.5 mph at 26°Single: 87.4 mph at 7°Out: 73.7 mph at -59°Out: 97.1 mph at 37°Out: 84.0 mph at 36°Out: 76.4 mph at 71°Single: 35.8 mph at 4°Out: 91.9 mph at 33°Out: 94.5 mph at 7°Out: 57.2 mph at -24°Out: 93.2 mph at 34°Single: 76.0 mph at 21°Out: 74.8 mph at -3°Single: 93.2 mph at 13°Home run: 105.2 mph at 29°Single: 68.3 mph at -1°Single: 101.0 mph at 12°Out: 88.1 mph at -25°Single: 85.3 mph at 7°Home run: 103.4 mph at 32°Single: 89.9 mph at 15°Out: 102.9 mph at -11°Out: 87.8 mph at 45°Out: 95.8 mph at 22°Out: 100.4 mph at 26°Out: 76.4 mph at 40°Out: 92.0 mph at -5°Out: 13.6 mph at -7°Out: 87.5 mph at 9°Out: 92.4 mph at -1°Double: 105.2 mph at 15°Out: 95.0 mph at -8°
28% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.9%59.7%-0.8
2+ total bases33.8%34.6%-0.7
Home run11.2%12.0%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Walker Jenkins hits
Walker Jenkins · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .306 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 13 pitches seen.282xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .141 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 10 pitches seen.274xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .488 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 2 pitches seen.280xwOBA .438 shrunk (raw .668 on 5 PA) · league .342 · 14 pitches seen.438xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .409 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 24 pitches seen.395xwOBA .417 shrunk (raw .532 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 15 pitches seen.417xwOBA .238 shrunk (raw .134 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 12 pitches seen.238xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .351 on 2 PA) · league .351 · 11 pitches seen.351xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .456 on 2 PA) · league .292 · 19 pitches seen.315xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .471 on 5 PA) · league .377 · 41 pitches seen.405xwOBA .213 shrunk (raw .090 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 17 pitches seen.213xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .197 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.241xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .289 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 44 pitches seen.279
vs RHP · 253 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 22%13%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 20%22%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 0% of 18 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 14%22%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 13%33%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 17%27%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 28%14%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 24%44%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 49%44%
vs RHP · 253 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 62%62%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 72%90%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 75% of 24 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 70%87%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 65%75%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 68%55%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 60%58%Swings at 17% of 41 pitches · league 24%17%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 34%53%Swings at 32% of 31 pitches · league 40%32%Swings at 21% of 44 pitches · league 32%21%
vs RHP · 253 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Walker Jenkins against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.343.33521.4%19.5%15About league average vs these
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.341.33421.7%25.6%9About league average vs these
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.289.28224.3%27.4%9About league average vs these
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.325.31821.6%25.6%6Little history vs this shape
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.356.34918.4%16.7%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Walker Jenkins · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.294.294.471.329.3125.9%0.0%7.7%82.1102.56.2%18.8%25.0%
Last 15 G1544.310.341.548.381.37918.2%4.5%17.7%88.4105.211.8%35.3%41.2%
Last 30 G2266.267.333.500.373.34216.7%9.1%19.7%86.8105.28.2%32.7%34.7%
90 days2266.267.333.500.373.34216.7%9.1%19.7%86.8105.28.2%32.7%34.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G12.000.000.000.000.2920.0%0.0%0.0%93.294.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G713.091.167.091.150.26230.8%0.0%30.0%73.794.50.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1219.062.167.062.139.24736.8%5.3%40.0%77.1105.40.0%10.0%20.0%
90 days1219.062.167.062.139.24736.8%5.3%40.0%77.1105.40.0%10.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.263.263.421.295.3105.3%0.0%7.1%83.3102.55.6%16.7%22.2%
Last 15 G1557.264.304.453.331.35421.1%3.5%20.2%85.6105.29.5%28.6%38.1%
Last 30 G2285.224.298.408.323.32121.2%8.2%23.7%85.2105.46.8%28.8%32.2%
90 days2285.224.298.408.323.32121.2%8.2%23.7%85.2105.46.8%28.8%32.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 9%
Walker Jenkins · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating58Average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.312 / .325results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball98.286.217.872Single
Sep 25RHPFastball97.490.011.606Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup82.673.53.121Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper81.496.843.050Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball78.889.06.414Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.290.2-1.263Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.679.174.000Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.594.724.261Out
Sep 22RHPFastball92.1102.5261.262Home run
Sep 21RHPFastball94.587.47.504Single
Sep 21RHPFastball95.073.7-59.261Out
Sep 21RHPSlider85.797.137.301Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 23211000
Sep 22414100
Sep 21411000
Sep 20511000
Sep 19522010
Sep 18436100
Sep 17436101
Sep 14400001
Sep 13400003

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Walker Jenkins bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Walker Jenkins with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.3%41.0%
Whiff%20.4%21.3%
Contact%79.6%78.7%
Chase%37.1%39.6%
wOBA.246.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes22.2%23.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.318
K%22.4%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%24.5%
Avg EV87.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

62 PA
wOBA.360
xwOBA vs this mix.330against pitches like his
RV/1000.77
Hard-hit%25.4%
K%18.4%
BB%8.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Walker Jenkins: every projection we've made →