MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · KC · batting 6Nick Loftin
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.310wOBA vs RHP.267xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CLETanner Bibee
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Down
3.7projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tanner Bibee's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 25% usage, 93.9 mph, +4.2″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Nick Loftin: wOBA .349 vs league .354 (about even).Fastball 25%Cutter: 23% usage, 85.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +0.1″ rise. Nick Loftin: wOBA .279 vs league .284 (about even).Cutter 23%Sinker: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +7.9″ rise. Nick Loftin: wOBA .346 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 19%Changeup: 14% usage, 80.6 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Nick Loftin: wOBA .317 vs league .322 (about even).Changeup 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 78.1 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Nick Loftin: wOBA .273 vs league .278 (about even).Curveball 12%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.0 mph, -16.6″ arm side, -1.7″ rise. Nick Loftin: wOBA .270 vs league .275 (about even).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nick Loftin's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nick Loftin's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 66.7 mph at 14°Double: 97.3 mph at 18°Out: 106.5 mph at -9°Home run: 102.1 mph at 32°Out: 95.8 mph at 46°Out: 76.4 mph at 40°Out: 30.5 mph at 11°Out: 78.8 mph at 68°Single: 96.5 mph at -5°Out: 101.1 mph at -12°Single: 101.6 mph at 6°Single: 94.3 mph at 10°Out: 48.2 mph at 75°Single: 99.9 mph at 6°Single: 96.8 mph at 11°Out: 97.3 mph at -8°Double: 76.5 mph at 55°Out: 96.3 mph at 46°Out: 91.2 mph at 36°Single: 82.8 mph at 16°Out: 96.0 mph at 64°Out: 83.8 mph at -22°Out: 62.0 mph at 30°Out: 89.0 mph at -18°Out: 68.8 mph at -25°Out: 84.8 mph at 25°Double: 65.4 mph at 28°Out: 92.3 mph at 23°Out: 93.0 mph at -11°Out: 74.2 mph at 45°Out: 57.1 mph at 26°Double: 99.1 mph at 20°Out: 86.1 mph at 4°Out: 55.3 mph at 75°Out: 100.4 mph at -28°Out: 92.8 mph at -5°Single: 68.3 mph at 12°Single: 71.8 mph at 45°Out: 98.8 mph at 31°Out: 89.5 mph at 58°
38% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.7%61.6%+3.1
2+ total bases34.1%32.0%+2.1
Home run6.0%6.8%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.5
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nick Loftin against each of Tanner Bibee's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball25%93.9+4″ / +15″.349.3549.1%18.4%44About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter23%85.1-7″ / +0″.279.28418.7%32.8%30About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker19%92.7+15″ / +8″.346.3515.6%11.2%41About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup14%80.6+12″ / +12″.317.32221.3%25.7%8About league average vs these
Curveball12%78.1-14″ / -8″.273.27826.0%30.6%12About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.0-17″ / -2″.270.27525.7%30.4%19About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nick Loftin · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.385.385.462.373.27623.1%0.0%10.0%83.9101.60.0%50.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1135.303.343.394.327.28520.0%5.7%9.7%81.9101.63.8%30.8%46.2%
Last 30 G2479.264.329.403.324.27321.5%8.9%16.4%85.1104.63.6%30.9%41.8%
90 days58171.232.304.377.309.26819.3%8.8%16.4%83.1104.62.5%25.4%35.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 122 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 17%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.5001.000.606.4110.0%12.5%0.0%89.6106.514.3%71.4%28.6%
Last 15 G1019.167.211.389.255.22126.3%5.3%26.7%88.2106.57.7%53.8%23.1%
Last 30 G1635.250.314.500.347.28920.0%8.6%25.0%89.3106.58.0%44.0%32.0%
90 days4292.256.337.378.324.30019.6%9.8%20.6%86.9106.53.2%31.7%36.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 27%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.400.429.650.462.32714.3%4.8%6.7%86.3106.55.9%58.8%35.3%
Last 15 G1554.255.296.392.302.26222.2%5.6%15.2%84.0106.55.1%38.5%38.5%
Last 30 G30114.260.325.433.331.27821.1%8.8%18.8%86.4106.55.0%35.0%38.8%
90 days70263.240.315.378.314.27919.4%9.1%17.8%84.4106.52.7%27.6%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 185 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 21%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 9%
Nick Loftin · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating18Poor
Last 100 pitches54trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.308 / .280running 28 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker95.866.714.329Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.697.318.477Double
Sep 22LHPSinker95.7106.5-9.323Out
Sep 22LHPSlider85.6102.1321.083Home run
Sep 22LHPSinker95.395.846.011Out
Sep 22RHPSlider84.076.440.153Out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.630.511.291Out
Sep 20RHPSweeper83.278.868.005Out
Sep 20RHPCutter93.096.5-5.271Single
Sep 20LHPSinker95.9101.1-12.258Out
Sep 19RHPSlider91.1101.66.593Single
Sep 19RHPSinker97.194.310.628Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24412002
Sep 22414100
Sep 20411000
Sep 19544000
Sep 18412011
Sep 17100000
Sep 16311010
Sep 15100000
Sep 13300001
Sep 12400003

Two strikes

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Tanner Bibee with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball25%24%11.5%11.3%18.0%
Cutter23%21%25.5%23.5%17.9%
Changeup14%20%20.9%17.7%18.6%
Sinker19%16%3.1%14.5%16.9%
Sweeper8%11%8.0%6.8%19.3%
Curveball12%8%10.5%12.5%20.1%
Nick Loftin bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nick Loftin with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.2%42.4%
Whiff%19.7%22.2%
Contact%80.3%77.8%
Chase%37.9%39.8%
wOBA.239.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.9%20.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%19.1%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%7.7%
Barrel%2.7%
Hard-hit%20.4%
Avg EV84.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

171 PA
wOBA.310
xwOBA vs this mix.267against pitches like his
RV/100-0.19
Hard-hit%19.1%
K%19.7%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE vs KC
3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 24.3 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 49.3%49%≤34 strikeouts: 19.2%19%45 strikeouts: 14.3%14%56 strikeouts: 8.8%9%67 strikeouts: 4.8%5%78 strikeouts: 2.2%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.4%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff96
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball25%7693.96.0%
Cutter23%12185.212.4%
Sinker19%9492.74.3%
Changeup14%10580.616.7%
Curveball12%7878.25.5%
Sweeper8%9881.97.4%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19958%7%40%.518
Sep 139627%16%31%.248
Sep 8625%2%30%.412

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nick Loftin: every projection we've made →