MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 3Isaac Paredes
Bats rightTalent grade AContactHot
.375wOBA vs RHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .291 vs league .269 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .378 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .275 vs league .252 (hitter's edge).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .348 vs league .326 (hitter's edge).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Isaac Paredes: wOBA .372 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Isaac Paredes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Isaac Paredes's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 96.6 mph at 35°Out: 89.5 mph at 58°Out: 82.7 mph at 59°Out: 96.1 mph at 20°Out: 95.8 mph at 32°Out: 85.7 mph at 20°Double: 100.6 mph at 37°Out: 71.5 mph at -29°Out: 57.9 mph at 82°Out: 65.7 mph at -1°Home run: 104.7 mph at 25°Single: 81.7 mph at 9°Out: 82.4 mph at 79°Out: 45.9 mph at 36°Out: 80.3 mph at 78°Out: 79.1 mph at 43°Single: 86.5 mph at 15°Home run: 103.6 mph at 23°Out: 96.9 mph at 28°Single: 96.7 mph at 0°Single: 83.2 mph at 15°Single: 89.2 mph at 6°Out: 82.8 mph at 26°Out: 86.4 mph at 51°Out: 63.6 mph at 15°Out: 88.0 mph at 28°Out: 40.4 mph at -71°Out: 96.9 mph at -15°Out: 94.4 mph at 21°Out: 95.5 mph at 42°Out: 93.5 mph at -4°Out: 67.1 mph at 15°Home run: 96.8 mph at 28°Out: 100.0 mph at 51°Out: 58.4 mph at -13°Home run: 97.3 mph at 30°Double: 105.3 mph at 17°Out: 98.2 mph at 8°Out: 81.1 mph at 1°Out: 98.6 mph at 11°
40% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.3%64.2%+3.1
2+ total bases41.7%37.6%+4.1
Home run13.5%10.6%+2.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+2.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+3.2
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Isaac Paredes against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.291.26917.3%32.7%24About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.378.3558.8%17.0%86About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.275.25216.1%31.3%11About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.348.32612.1%22.9%41About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.372.3495.3%11.1%85About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Isaac Paredes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.357.412.857.497.3405.9%11.8%3.3%82.4103.67.1%35.7%35.7%
Last 15 G1547.325.383.600.409.32514.9%10.6%9.8%86.5105.32.9%42.9%48.6%
Last 30 G3095.282.389.526.400.31911.6%14.7%10.5%87.3105.31.4%34.8%37.7%
90 days73249.272.386.461.387.3368.8%13.3%11.2%85.0106.23.3%26.1%39.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 184 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 22%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.250.5001.000.567.6130.0%33.3%8.3%88.3104.725.0%25.0%50.0%
Last 15 G917.214.353.857.476.44717.6%17.6%13.8%86.2104.718.2%45.5%45.5%
Last 30 G1734.185.324.519.379.31917.6%14.7%16.1%82.5104.79.1%31.8%27.3%
90 days3878.282.333.521.375.32114.1%6.4%12.2%85.6109.54.9%34.4%44.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 21%Line drive 33%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 23%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.333.435.889.515.4114.3%17.4%4.8%83.7104.711.1%33.3%38.9%
Last 15 G1564.296.375.667.427.35715.6%12.5%10.7%86.4105.36.5%43.5%47.8%
Last 30 G30129.257.372.524.394.31913.2%14.7%11.9%86.1105.33.3%34.1%35.2%
90 days75327.274.373.477.384.33210.1%11.6%11.4%85.2109.53.7%28.2%40.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 245 balls in play
Ground 27%Line drive 25%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 19%
Isaac Paredes · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating81Excellent
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.379 / .351running 29 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run5/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.496.635.317Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball99.089.558.008Out
Sep 24RHPCutter92.082.759.031Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.296.120.360Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper88.995.832.362Sac fly
Sep 23LHPFastball96.385.720.528Out
Sep 23RHPSinker99.3100.637.521Double
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.671.5-29.042Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter81.157.982.007Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter80.165.7-1.089Force out
Sep 22LHPSlider90.1104.7251.739Home run
Sep 22RHPSweeper81.081.79.396Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24514110
Sep 23512001
Sep 22525110
Sep 20400010
Sep 19425110
Sep 18422001
Sep 17411010
Sep 16400001
Sep 15400001
Sep 13414110

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Isaac Paredes bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Isaac Paredes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%23.8%42.4%
Whiff%10.7%22.2%
Contact%89.3%77.8%
Chase%40.4%39.8%
wOBA.273.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes11.5%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.373
K%11.6%
BB%11.3%
Whiff%5.7%
Barrel%3.1%
Hard-hit%21.8%
Avg EV85.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

247 PA
wOBA.375
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/1001.05
Hard-hit%20.3%
K%10.5%
BB%11.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Isaac Paredes: every projection we've made →