MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · OAK · batting 2Lawrence Butler
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · HOUTBD
Stable
3.9projected K–K%2.1trips vs this hitter
Lawrence Butler's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 109.0 mph at 19°Single: 90.4 mph at 2°Single: 82.5 mph at 8°Out: 90.3 mph at 0°Single: 101.2 mph at 0°Out: 103.0 mph at 10°Single: 101.7 mph at 3°Triple: 102.6 mph at 36°Out: 102.0 mph at -12°Double: 110.8 mph at 18°Single: 100.2 mph at 9°Out: 35.5 mph at -17°Out: 67.0 mph at -20°Out: 87.2 mph at -12°Out: 81.5 mph at -13°Out: 105.0 mph at 4°Single: 67.4 mph at 26°Out: 91.5 mph at 49°Single: 94.3 mph at -8°Out: 46.8 mph at -71°Home run: 109.3 mph at 33°Single: 85.9 mph at -28°Out: 94.7 mph at -4°Out: 102.9 mph at 45°Out: 92.5 mph at 35°Out: 89.9 mph at -22°Home run: 106.0 mph at 25°Home run: 107.6 mph at 36°Out: 87.4 mph at 31°Out: 90.2 mph at -32°Out: 94.6 mph at 8°Home run: 106.9 mph at 25°Double: 89.2 mph at 15°Out: 66.2 mph at 82°Single: 88.8 mph at 14°Out: 77.4 mph at 5°Out: 60.4 mph at 58°Out: 82.7 mph at 45°Out: 73.5 mph at 66°Out: 92.7 mph at -22°
35% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.1%62.6%+2.5
2+ total bases41.6%38.3%+3.3
Home run16.4%13.8%+2.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+2.6
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+3.3
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Lawrence Butler · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.375.412.500.400.40823.5%5.9%32.3%91.3110.816.7%41.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1550.283.340.609.399.37732.0%6.0%29.2%89.6110.820.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G2791.321.407.590.423.39130.8%12.1%23.2%92.4110.815.7%47.1%37.3%
90 days68194.285.381.497.381.36525.3%13.4%20.8%91.4110.811.0%47.5%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 118 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.600.6671.000.717.52714.3%14.3%12.5%88.3102.60.0%80.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1216.308.400.462.393.3606.2%12.5%8.7%85.3102.60.0%30.8%15.4%
Last 30 G2140.286.359.429.354.32427.5%10.0%21.3%89.9107.84.0%48.0%20.0%
90 days52109.253.336.432.350.31525.7%10.1%23.5%88.7107.87.2%44.9%27.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 16%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.429.478.619.483.43920.8%8.3%28.2%90.4110.811.8%52.9%35.3%
Last 15 G1566.288.354.576.398.37425.8%7.6%25.6%88.3110.814.0%32.6%27.9%
Last 30 G30131.310.392.540.402.37129.8%11.5%22.7%91.5110.811.8%47.4%31.6%
90 days77303.273.365.473.370.34725.4%12.2%21.7%90.4110.89.6%46.5%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 187 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 17%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 8%
Lawrence Butler · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating79Above average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.364 / .348running 16 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball92.9109.0191.101Double
Sep 24RHPFastball97.490.42.296Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup86.082.58.407Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup92.690.30.275Out
Sep 23LHPFastball90.6101.20.386Single
Sep 23RHPSinker96.1103.010.812Out
Sep 23RHPSinker100.9101.73.503Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball84.1102.636.959Triple
Sep 22LHPFastball95.1102.0-12.244Double play
Sep 22RHPSlider85.9110.8181.181Double
Sep 22LHPSlider86.3100.29.676Single
Sep 22LHPFastball91.835.5-17–Sac bunt
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24534002
Sep 23522001
Sep 22536000
Sep 20400012
Sep 19511010
Sep 18400021
Sep 17425101
Sep 16411002
Sep 15400002
Sep 13528201

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Lawrence Butler: every projection we've made →