MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SF · batting 8Shay Whitcomb
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.279wOBA vs LHP.282xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
6.7projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 96.1 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .305 vs league .312 (about even).Fastball 50%Curveball: 22% usage, 79.8 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.8″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .294 vs league .301 (about even).Curveball 22%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +8.2″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .303 vs league .310 (about even).Changeup 18%Slider: 10% usage, 88.6 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Shay Whitcomb: wOBA .319 vs league .326 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Shay Whitcomb's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Shay Whitcomb's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 81.5 mph at 55°Single: 70.6 mph at 27°Out: 79.9 mph at -16°Out: 99.4 mph at 16°Single: 105.1 mph at 11°Out: 88.3 mph at 23°Out: 79.1 mph at 0°Out: 90.7 mph at 38°Out: 93.0 mph at -8°Out: 103.2 mph at -7°Single: 66.2 mph at -22°Out: 65.9 mph at -14°Out: 105.0 mph at 19°Single: 103.7 mph at 13°Out: 105.1 mph at -6°Single: 56.7 mph at -56°Out: 91.2 mph at 48°Single: 73.2 mph at 30°Single: 92.6 mph at 8°Out: 91.1 mph at 62°Out: 78.7 mph at -38°Out: 51.8 mph at 35°Out: 92.7 mph at -17°Home run: 105.8 mph at 24°Out: 81.4 mph at 27°Out: 92.1 mph at 49°Out: 100.3 mph at -1°Out: 65.0 mph at -49°Out: 58.8 mph at 49°Double: 102.6 mph at 25°Out: 92.8 mph at 39°Single: 103.6 mph at 7°Out: 59.2 mph at 44°Out: 73.8 mph at 13°Out: 92.0 mph at -16°Out: 78.9 mph at 52°Single: 105.1 mph at 8°Single: 76.1 mph at -32°Out: 102.5 mph at 16°Out: 87.8 mph at -5°
30% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.5%56.0%-5.5
2+ total bases24.5%29.4%-4.9
Home run6.8%9.8%-3.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.1
Pitch mix
-0.9
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-1.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
-0.7
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.4
Home run
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Shay Whitcomb against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%96.1+6″ / +19″.305.31223.2%21.8%9About league average vs these
Curveball22%79.8-14″ / -9″.294.30126.0%30.0%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup18%84.5+13″ / +8″.303.31033.4%32.3%6Little history vs this shape
Slider10%88.6-4″ / +7″.319.32617.4%20.5%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Shay Whitcomb · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.286.286.286.386.23314.3%0.0%21.4%86.3103.20.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1024.250.250.250.274.23916.7%0.0%21.4%86.4105.05.3%26.3%31.6%
Last 30 G1633.212.212.242.236.24221.2%0.0%22.2%86.6107.98.0%28.0%32.0%
90 days1633.212.212.242.236.24221.2%0.0%22.2%86.6107.98.0%28.0%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 25 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.100.182.100.145.22454.5%9.1%42.3%93.2105.10.0%50.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1231.267.290.400.302.33222.6%3.2%22.6%87.2105.88.7%39.1%43.5%
Last 30 G2260.200.241.345.279.28125.0%5.0%22.6%82.4105.87.1%33.3%33.3%
90 days2260.200.241.345.279.28125.0%5.0%22.6%82.4105.87.1%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 42 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 17%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.176.222.176.239.22838.9%5.6%35.0%89.1105.10.0%30.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1555.259.273.333.290.29220.0%1.8%22.1%86.8105.87.1%33.3%38.1%
Last 30 G2693.205.231.307.264.26723.7%3.2%22.5%84.0107.97.5%31.3%32.8%
90 days2693.205.231.307.264.26723.7%3.2%22.5%84.0107.97.5%31.3%32.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 19%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 12%
Shay Whitcomb · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating23Poor
Last 100 pitches33trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.257 / .289running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPSinker96.581.555.032Single
Sep 23LHPCurveball85.570.627.873Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.179.9-16.058Out
Sep 22RHPFastball98.099.416.623Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.7105.111.906Single
Sep 20RHPSlider87.388.323.184Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup87.079.10.165Error
Sep 19LHPSlider88.090.738.036Out
Sep 19LHPFastball95.693.0-8.189Out
Sep 19LHPSlider88.3103.2-7.338Out
Sep 16LHPChangeup87.666.2-22.047Single
Sep 16LHPFastball93.365.9-14.051Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23422001
Sep 22411011
Sep 20300001
Sep 19400001
Sep 18300003
Sep 16622000
Sep 15100001
Sep 14311001
Sep 13422000
Sep 12314100

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.6%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%21.3%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%21.6%
Shay Whitcomb bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Shay Whitcomb with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.6%41.6%
Whiff%25.9%21.7%
Contact%74.1%78.3%
Chase%40.5%40.0%
wOBA.246.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes28.2%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.270
K%24.6%
BB%4.9%
Whiff%10.8%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%22.4%
Avg EV86.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

33 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.282against pitches like his
RV/100-1.29
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%22.3%
BB%4.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF
6.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 10.4%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.5%10%45 strikeouts: 14.0%14%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.2%12%89+ strikeouts: 22.8%23%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Shay Whitcomb: every projection we've made →