MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 4Jordan Walker
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.320wOBA vs RHP.301xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .322 vs league .322 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .338 vs league .338 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .347 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .276 vs league .276 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .271 vs league .271 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .289 vs league .289 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jordan Walker's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jordan Walker's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 104.7 mph at -25°Single: 77.8 mph at 33°Out: 99.5 mph at 2°Out: 81.4 mph at 77°Out: 106.6 mph at 40°Out: 71.6 mph at 58°Out: 70.4 mph at -38°Out: 110.0 mph at -4°Out: 95.2 mph at -30°Out: 112.1 mph at 17°Out: 106.0 mph at -18°Out: 98.5 mph at -41°Single: 117.2 mph at -1°Out: 105.8 mph at 21°Out: 95.7 mph at -6°Out: 111.0 mph at 14°Single: 85.2 mph at 12°Out: 91.4 mph at 35°Out: 92.3 mph at -23°Out: 96.7 mph at -17°Single: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 88.2 mph at 34°Double: 115.4 mph at 6°Out: 95.4 mph at -11°Out: 83.5 mph at -4°Out: 83.7 mph at -25°Out: 87.0 mph at 42°Out: 98.7 mph at -21°Single: 101.8 mph at -14°Out: 108.1 mph at -5°Out: 69.9 mph at 75°Out: 61.5 mph at -31°Out: 103.0 mph at -14°Out: 43.4 mph at -51°Out: 85.6 mph at 45°Out: 83.5 mph at 4°Single: 100.7 mph at -10°Out: 107.4 mph at -5°Single: 102.1 mph at 3°Double: 110.4 mph at 9°
60% hit 95+ mph13% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.1%58.7%-0.6
2+ total bases33.9%34.1%-0.2
Home run12.0%11.4%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jordan Walker against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.322.32231.2%24.2%35About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.338.33816.7%12.2%53About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.347.34724.1%18.4%69About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.276.27635.0%27.5%26About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.271.27137.8%29.8%8Little history vs this shape
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.289.28942.3%30.0%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jordan Walker · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.067.176.067.135.23335.3%11.8%38.2%92.0110.011.1%55.6%0.0%
Last 15 G1445.125.222.150.186.26031.1%11.1%35.4%96.0117.211.5%61.5%11.5%
Last 30 G2893.176.237.259.242.25032.3%7.5%35.6%91.7117.210.7%55.4%16.1%
90 days73232.252.302.407.320.29527.6%6.0%32.3%90.9117.211.8%46.7%27.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 15%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.000.000.000.000.27250.0%0.0%50.0%103.7112.150.0%100.0%50.0%
Last 15 G69.125.222.125.178.26744.4%11.1%41.2%100.6112.125.0%75.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1327.269.296.423.346.32440.7%3.7%36.5%95.2112.113.3%66.7%40.0%
90 days4289.250.360.434.371.38323.6%14.6%28.0%92.8115.010.9%52.7%43.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 55 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 27%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.053.143.053.110.24138.1%9.5%40.5%94.1112.118.2%63.6%9.1%
Last 15 G1554.125.222.146.184.26233.3%11.1%36.4%96.6117.213.3%63.3%13.3%
Last 30 G30120.198.250.297.265.26734.2%6.7%35.8%92.5117.211.3%57.7%21.1%
90 days77321.252.318.414.334.32026.5%8.4%31.1%91.4117.211.6%48.3%31.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
Jordan Walker · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating62Average
Last 100 pitches35trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.333 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball97.4104.7-25.157Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.677.833.085Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.999.52.432Out
Sep 23RHPSlider82.681.477.005Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.7106.6401.150Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.471.658.023Out
Sep 22RHPSlider91.370.4-38.111Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.6110.0-4.423Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.395.2-30.077Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.4112.1171.013Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.5106.0-18.183Force out
Sep 18RHPSinker95.398.5-41.090Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400012
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300000
Sep 20400011
Sep 19600004
Sep 18311001
Sep 16500022
Sep 15300001
Sep 14411011
Sep 13300002

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Jordan Walker bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jordan Walker with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%52.4%42.4%
Whiff%27.6%22.2%
Contact%72.4%77.8%
Chase%38.5%39.8%
wOBA.212.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.9%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.318
K%26.6%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%15.4%
Barrel%7.3%
Hard-hit%31.1%
Avg EV91.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

228 PA
wOBA.320
xwOBA vs this mix.301against pitches like his
RV/100-0.22
Hard-hit%30.7%
K%26.7%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jordan Walker: every projection we've made →