MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 5Leo Bernal
Switch hitterTalent grade BPowerCold
.360wOBA vs RHP.336xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .368 vs league .361 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .354 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .352 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .311 vs league .304 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .280 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .290 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Leo Bernal's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Leo Bernal's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.4 mph at 31°Out: 61.8 mph at 75°Out: 67.7 mph at -41°Single: 84.1 mph at 8°Out: 91.3 mph at 44°Out: 90.0 mph at 7°Home run: 108.5 mph at 26°Single: 85.8 mph at -4°Out: 97.1 mph at -11°Out: 80.4 mph at 43°Out: 78.7 mph at 47°Single: 77.3 mph at 16°Single: 96.4 mph at 1°Single: 75.3 mph at 25°Out: 103.1 mph at 40°Single: 103.0 mph at 17°Out: 96.3 mph at 4°Out: 84.5 mph at -5°Out: 92.5 mph at 0°Out: 82.7 mph at 42°Out: 103.0 mph at -32°Out: 100.0 mph at 28°Double: 107.5 mph at 17°Single: 104.0 mph at 13°Single: 79.6 mph at 21°Out: 98.5 mph at 34°Out: 84.6 mph at 43°Home run: 106.2 mph at 23°Out: 97.6 mph at -14°Out: 98.1 mph at 21°Out: 78.4 mph at 9°Single: 102.3 mph at 8°Double: 102.6 mph at 16°Single: 95.7 mph at 11°Home run: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 88.7 mph at 27°Out: 97.0 mph at 44°Out: 85.6 mph at -5°Out: 67.0 mph at -35°Out: 101.0 mph at 37°
50% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.1%64.3%-0.2
2+ total bases38.1%37.8%+0.3
Home run14.1%13.0%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Leo Bernal against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.368.36115.6%17.8%16About league average vs these
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.354.34710.0%11.7%9About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.352.34515.7%18.0%21About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.311.30427.1%28.1%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.280.27333.4%34.5%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.290.28326.2%26.9%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Leo Bernal · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.133.133.333.253.20740.0%0.0%20.5%85.4108.511.1%22.2%33.3%
Last 15 G1547.261.277.478.356.34925.5%2.1%21.3%91.2108.514.7%50.0%41.2%
Last 30 G2166.274.318.500.376.34222.7%6.1%20.3%91.6109.810.6%51.1%38.3%
90 days2166.274.318.500.376.34222.7%6.1%20.3%91.6109.810.6%51.1%38.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 19%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.200.333.200.267.14550.0%16.7%50.0%82.285.80.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G816.267.312.333.291.26431.2%6.2%25.0%92.3104.00.0%60.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1124.304.333.348.306.33229.2%4.2%22.2%96.0107.60.0%75.0%56.2%
90 days1124.304.333.348.306.33229.2%4.2%22.2%96.0107.60.0%75.0%56.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 16 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 38%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.150.190.300.257.18942.9%4.8%27.5%84.8108.59.1%18.2%27.3%
Last 15 G1563.262.286.443.340.32727.0%3.2%22.2%91.4108.511.4%52.3%43.2%
Last 30 G2190.282.322.459.357.33924.4%5.6%20.9%92.7109.87.9%57.1%42.9%
90 days2190.282.322.459.357.33924.4%5.6%20.9%92.7109.87.9%57.1%42.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 3%
Leo Bernal · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating88Excellent
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.352 / .363results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider87.987.431.016Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.461.875.006Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.667.7-41.116Out
Sep 23RHPCutter92.284.18.410Single
Sep 22RHPFastball98.191.344.008Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball76.290.07.422Error
Sep 20RHPSlider92.1108.5261.956Home run
Sep 19LHPFastball93.385.8-4.126Single
Sep 19RHPSinker101.097.1-11.152Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper82.380.443.019Out
Sep 19LHPFastball92.078.747.045Out
Sep 18RHPSinker95.677.316.765Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400003
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300002
Sep 20414111
Sep 19611002
Sep 18433001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15400000
Sep 14434000
Sep 13300002

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Leo Bernal bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Leo Bernal with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.1%41.0%
Whiff%17.9%21.3%
Contact%82.1%78.7%
Chase%35.6%39.6%
wOBA.262.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.5%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.327
K%23.5%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%30.8%
Avg EV90.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

66 PA
wOBA.360
xwOBA vs this mix.336against pitches like his
RV/1001.05
Hard-hit%34.4%
K%22.9%
BB%6.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Leo Bernal: every projection we've made →