MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 8Nathan Church
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedHot
.292wOBA vs RHP.282xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Nathan Church: wOBA .348 vs league .361 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Nathan Church: wOBA .334 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Nathan Church: wOBA .332 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Nathan Church: wOBA .291 vs league .304 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Nathan Church: wOBA .261 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Nathan Church: wOBA .271 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nathan Church's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nathan Church's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 99.6 mph at -6°Out: 95.4 mph at 29°Out: 67.2 mph at 73°Out: 81.8 mph at 42°Out: 75.0 mph at 28°Out: 94.1 mph at 26°Out: 78.8 mph at 63°Double: 53.7 mph at 29°Out: 90.2 mph at -27°Out: 53.1 mph at 48°Out: 88.0 mph at 47°Out: 82.5 mph at 32°Single: 93.5 mph at 8°Out: 80.7 mph at 11°Double: 67.7 mph at 12°Out: 97.4 mph at 25°Out: 105.9 mph at -2°Double: 100.2 mph at 17°Single: 78.3 mph at 8°Single: 81.9 mph at 7°Out: 83.2 mph at -2°Out: 95.7 mph at 25°Out: 97.3 mph at 28°Out: 101.6 mph at 18°Out: 73.0 mph at 62°Out: 86.4 mph at 21°Out: 71.2 mph at -7°Single: 73.5 mph at 28°Double: 98.8 mph at 19°Out: 65.8 mph at -16°Double: 100.9 mph at 23°Single: 101.6 mph at 12°Out: 46.8 mph at 2°Single: 77.0 mph at 19°Out: 86.8 mph at -43°Single: 64.4 mph at 30°Out: 70.3 mph at 72°Out: 99.9 mph at 2°Single: 36.1 mph at -6°Out: 94.3 mph at 45°
30% hit 95+ mph53% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.6%61.0%-1.4
2+ total bases28.6%29.6%-1.0
Home run7.1%6.7%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nathan Church against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.348.36115.8%17.8%26About league average vs these
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.334.34710.3%11.7%30About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.332.34516.4%18.0%60About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.291.30420.0%28.1%9About league average vs these
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.261.27325.2%34.5%8Little history vs this shape
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.271.28319.1%26.9%32About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nathan Church · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.167.167.250.179.16716.7%0.0%25.0%79.199.60.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1543.282.349.385.349.31911.6%7.0%18.3%82.4105.90.0%35.3%52.9%
Last 30 G2885.321.365.449.377.30311.8%5.9%15.4%84.8105.91.4%34.8%39.1%
90 days65198.255.288.348.289.27913.1%4.5%16.5%84.7105.90.6%30.9%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.333.333.500.430.1740.0%0.0%18.2%82.193.50.0%0.0%60.0%
Last 15 G814.385.429.538.454.2830.0%7.1%13.6%75.199.90.0%16.7%41.7%
Last 30 G1528.259.286.333.319.2217.1%3.6%11.5%78.199.90.0%8.3%33.3%
90 days2958.216.298.373.329.30212.1%8.6%13.6%77.1106.56.8%20.5%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.222.222.333.253.16911.1%0.0%23.3%80.199.60.0%13.3%53.3%
Last 15 G1557.308.368.423.373.3108.8%7.0%17.4%80.5105.90.0%30.4%50.0%
Last 30 G30113.305.345.419.363.28410.6%5.3%14.5%83.1105.91.1%28.0%37.6%
90 days70256.247.290.353.298.28412.9%5.5%15.8%83.1106.51.9%28.6%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 206 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 13%
Nathan Church · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating24Poor
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .289results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker96.799.6-6.310Single
Sep 24RHPSlider87.195.429.294Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.167.273.000Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.081.842.005Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.575.028.482Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball96.394.126.219Out
Sep 23LHPSinker88.878.863.012Out
Sep 22RHPFastball98.653.729.175Double
Sep 22RHPFastball98.590.2-27.051Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball78.753.148.028Out
Sep 20LHPFastball91.788.047.000Out
Sep 19LHPSlider83.782.532.038Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24311000
Sep 23400000
Sep 22312001
Sep 20300001
Sep 19523000
Sep 18312000
Sep 16522001
Sep 15400010
Sep 14300001
Sep 13323000

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Nathan Church bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nathan Church with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%32.4%41.0%
Whiff%15.7%21.3%
Contact%84.3%78.7%
Chase%49.0%39.6%
wOBA.254.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.4%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.298
K%14.6%
BB%5.7%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%2.1%
Hard-hit%23.5%
Avg EV83.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

199 PA
wOBA.292
xwOBA vs this mix.282against pitches like his
RV/100-0.69
Hard-hit%25.1%
K%14.1%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nathan Church: every projection we've made →