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Nathan Church
STL · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.
Statcast
by window and pitcher handNathan Church · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 12 | .167 | .167 | .250 | .179 | .167 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 79.1 | 99.6 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 43 | .282 | .349 | .385 | .349 | .319 | 11.6% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 82.4 | 105.9 | 0.0% | 35.3% | 52.9% |
| Last 30 G | 28 | 85 | .321 | .365 | .449 | .377 | .303 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 15.4% | 84.8 | 105.9 | 1.4% | 34.8% | 39.1% |
| 90 days | 65 | 198 | .255 | .288 | .348 | .289 | .279 | 13.1% | 4.5% | 16.5% | 84.7 | 105.9 | 0.6% | 30.9% | 37.7% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 3 | 6 | .333 | .333 | .500 | .430 | .174 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% | 82.1 | 93.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Last 15 G | 8 | 14 | .385 | .429 | .538 | .454 | .283 | 0.0% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 75.1 | 99.9 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 41.7% |
| Last 30 G | 15 | 28 | .259 | .286 | .333 | .319 | .221 | 7.1% | 3.6% | 11.5% | 78.1 | 99.9 | 0.0% | 8.3% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 29 | 58 | .216 | .298 | .373 | .329 | .302 | 12.1% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 77.1 | 106.5 | 6.8% | 20.5% | 31.8% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 16%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 18 | .222 | .222 | .333 | .253 | .169 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 23.3% | 80.1 | 99.6 | 0.0% | 13.3% | 53.3% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 57 | .308 | .368 | .423 | .373 | .310 | 8.8% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 80.5 | 105.9 | 0.0% | 30.4% | 50.0% |
| Last 30 G | 30 | 113 | .305 | .345 | .419 | .363 | .284 | 10.6% | 5.3% | 14.5% | 83.1 | 105.9 | 1.1% | 28.0% | 37.6% |
| 90 days | 70 | 256 | .247 | .290 | .353 | .298 | .284 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 15.8% | 83.1 | 106.5 | 1.9% | 28.6% | 36.4% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 206 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 13%
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sinker | 96.7 | 99.6 | -6 | .310 | Single |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Slider | 87.1 | 95.4 | 29 | .294 | Out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Sweeper | 84.1 | 67.2 | 73 | .000 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Changeup | 85.0 | 81.8 | 42 | .005 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 97.5 | 75.0 | 28 | .482 | Double play |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 96.3 | 94.1 | 26 | .219 | Out |
| Sep 23 | LHP | Sinker | 88.8 | 78.8 | 63 | .012 | Out |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 98.6 | 53.7 | 29 | .175 | Double |
| Sep 22 | RHP | Fastball | 98.5 | 90.2 | -27 | .051 | Out |
| Sep 20 | RHP | Curveball | 78.7 | 53.1 | 48 | .028 | Out |
| Sep 20 | LHP | Fastball | 91.7 | 88.0 | 47 | .000 | Out |
| Sep 19 | LHP | Slider | 83.7 | 82.5 | 32 | .038 | Out |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FormHot
Contact rating24Poor
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .289results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.298
Barrel%2.1%
Hard-hit%23.5%
K%14.6%
BB%5.7%
A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.
xwOBA22.284
Avg EV883.1
Max EV14106.5
Barrel%71.9%
Hard-hit%1328.6%
Sweet-spot%6036.4%
K%9212.9%
BB%195.5%
Whiff%8615.8%
Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.
Hits in 4 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 3.5. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.
Predicted vs what happened
6 settled gamesGames with a hit4 of 6BTB expected 3.5
Games with 2+ TB3 of 6BTB expected 1.5
Games with a HR0 of 6BTB expected 0.3
Talent gradeFwOBA .298 · K% 14.6%
One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.
| Date | Facing | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | H | TB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | Paul Skenes | 60.7% | 25.1% | 5.9% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | Lake Bachar | 64.3% | 29.5% | 6.2% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 22 | Jared Jones | 56.4% | 25.1% | 5.9% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 20 | Jake Irvin | 57.2% | 27.5% | 6.0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 19 | Andrew Alvarez | 57.7% | 26.2% | 4.4% | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | Cade Cavalli | 53.8% | 20.1% | 4.9% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |