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Nathan Church

STL · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Nathan Church · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.167.167.250.179.16716.7%0.0%25.0%79.199.60.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1543.282.349.385.349.31911.6%7.0%18.3%82.4105.90.0%35.3%52.9%
Last 30 G2885.321.365.449.377.30311.8%5.9%15.4%84.8105.91.4%34.8%39.1%
90 days65198.255.288.348.289.27913.1%4.5%16.5%84.7105.90.6%30.9%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.333.333.500.430.1740.0%0.0%18.2%82.193.50.0%0.0%60.0%
Last 15 G814.385.429.538.454.2830.0%7.1%13.6%75.199.90.0%16.7%41.7%
Last 30 G1528.259.286.333.319.2217.1%3.6%11.5%78.199.90.0%8.3%33.3%
90 days2958.216.298.373.329.30212.1%8.6%13.6%77.1106.56.8%20.5%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.222.222.333.253.16911.1%0.0%23.3%80.199.60.0%13.3%53.3%
Last 15 G1557.308.368.423.373.3108.8%7.0%17.4%80.5105.90.0%30.4%50.0%
Last 30 G30113.305.345.419.363.28410.6%5.3%14.5%83.1105.91.1%28.0%37.6%
90 days70256.247.290.353.298.28412.9%5.5%15.8%83.1106.51.9%28.6%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 206 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 13%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker96.799.6-6.310Single
Sep 24RHPSlider87.195.429.294Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.167.273.000Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.081.842.005Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.575.028.482Double play
Sep 23RHPFastball96.394.126.219Out
Sep 23LHPSinker88.878.863.012Out
Sep 22RHPFastball98.653.729.175Double
Sep 22RHPFastball98.590.2-27.051Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball78.753.148.028Out
Sep 20LHPFastball91.788.047.000Out
Sep 19LHPSlider83.782.532.038Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24311000
Sep 23400000
Sep 22312001
Sep 20300001
Sep 19523000
Sep 18312000
Sep 16522001
Sep 15400010
Sep 14300001
Sep 13323000
FormHot
Contact rating24Poor
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.293 / .289results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.298
Barrel%2.1%
Hard-hit%23.5%
K%14.6%
BB%5.7%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Nathan Church · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Nathan Church · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Cade Cavalli: 53.8% · 1 HSep 19 vs Andrew Alvarez: 57.7% · 2 HSep 20 vs Jake Irvin: 57.2% · no hitSep 22 vs Jared Jones: 56.4% · 1 HSep 23 vs Lake Bachar: 64.3% · no hitSep 24 vs Paul Skenes: 60.7% · 1 HSep 18Sep 24

Hits in 4 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 3.5. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit4 of 6BTB expected 3.5
Games with 2+ TB3 of 6BTB expected 1.5
Games with a HR0 of 6BTB expected 0.3
Talent gradeFwOBA .298 · K% 14.6%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 24Paul Skenes60.7%25.1%5.9%3110
Sep 23Lake Bachar64.3%29.5%6.2%4000
Sep 22Jared Jones56.4%25.1%5.9%3120
Sep 20Jake Irvin57.2%27.5%6.0%3000
Sep 19Andrew Alvarez57.7%26.2%4.4%5230
Sep 18Cade Cavalli53.8%20.1%4.9%3120
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.