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Pavin Smith
ARI · Hitter · 4 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.
Statcast
by window and pitcher handPavin Smith · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 12 | .400 | .500 | .800 | .537 | .432 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 24.0% | 93.5 | 104.6 | 14.3% | 71.4% | 57.1% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 40 | .270 | .325 | .486 | .350 | .362 | 25.0% | 7.5% | 22.8% | 94.2 | 109.7 | 7.4% | 59.3% | 33.3% |
| Last 30 G | 17 | 47 | .250 | .298 | .455 | .324 | .325 | 21.3% | 6.4% | 22.2% | 91.4 | 109.7 | 5.9% | 50.0% | 29.4% |
| 90 days | 17 | 47 | .250 | .298 | .455 | .324 | .325 | 21.3% | 6.4% | 22.2% | 91.4 | 109.7 | 5.9% | 50.0% | 29.4% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 18%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 9%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | No plate appearances | ||||||||||||||
| Last 15 G | 4 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .113 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 89.0 | 92.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Last 30 G | 4 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .113 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 89.0 | 92.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 90 days | 4 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .113 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 89.0 | 92.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 0%Fly ball 67%Pop-up 0%
| Window | G | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Avg EV | Max EV | Barrel% | Hard-hit% | Sweet-spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 G | 5 | 12 | .400 | .500 | .800 | .537 | .432 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 24.0% | 93.5 | 104.6 | 14.3% | 71.4% | 57.1% |
| Last 15 G | 15 | 44 | .244 | .295 | .439 | .318 | .340 | 25.0% | 6.8% | 21.8% | 93.7 | 109.7 | 6.7% | 53.3% | 33.3% |
| Last 30 G | 17 | 51 | .229 | .275 | .417 | .299 | .308 | 21.6% | 5.9% | 21.4% | 91.2 | 109.7 | 5.4% | 45.9% | 29.7% |
| 90 days | 17 | 51 | .229 | .275 | .417 | .299 | .308 | 21.6% | 5.9% | 21.4% | 91.2 | 109.7 | 5.4% | 45.9% | 29.7% |
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 37 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 16%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 8%
Recent contact
| Date | Pitcher | Pitch | Velo | EV | LA | xwOBA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 92.5 | 101.1 | 22 | .675 | Double |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Fastball | 92.4 | 104.6 | -1 | .440 | Force out |
| Sep 24 | RHP | Curveball | 83.5 | 72.2 | 43 | .305 | Single |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Cutter | 88.0 | 96.2 | 9 | .584 | Out |
| Sep 23 | RHP | Fastball | 93.0 | 104.3 | 10 | .839 | Single |
| Sep 19 | RHP | Cutter | 89.5 | 99.7 | 28 | .939 | Home run |
| Sep 18 | RHP | Fastball | 97.8 | 76.7 | 66 | .005 | Out |
| Sep 16 | RHP | Curveball | 78.1 | 103.7 | 7 | .597 | Single |
| Sep 16 | RHP | Sinker | 94.4 | 109.7 | 25 | 1.998 | Home run |
| Sep 16 | LHP | Curveball | 77.9 | 85.7 | 4 | .345 | Double play |
| Sep 16 | RHP | Fastball | 100.0 | 98.6 | 41 | .137 | Out |
| Sep 15 | RHP | Fastball | 95.7 | 105.7 | 1 | .484 | Out |
Total bases, last 10 games★ home run
| Date | PA | H | TB | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sep 19 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 16 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
FormHot
Contact rating42Below average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .309results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Talent
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.337
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%26.7%
K%27.5%
BB%11.1%
A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.
Hits in 2 of 3 settled games; the projections added up to 1.6. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.
Predicted vs what happened
3 settled gamesGames with a hit2 of 3BTB expected 1.6
Games with 2+ TB1 of 3BTB expected 0.9
Games with a HR0 of 3BTB expected 0.3
Talent gradeCwOBA .337 · K% 27.5%
One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.
| Date | Facing | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | H | TB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | Casey Mize | 57.1% | 32.7% | 12.0% | not settled | |||
| Sep 24 | Tanner Gordon | 58.5% | 33.2% | 12.7% | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Sep 23 | Mason Adams | 56.8% | 34.2% | 12.0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 18 | Gerrit Cole | 49.1% | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |