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Josh Smith

TOR · Hitter · 4 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Josh Smith · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.000.000.000.000.18136.4%0.0%17.2%81.297.00.0%16.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1436.156.222.375.261.23730.6%5.6%19.3%86.2100.50.0%38.1%28.6%
Last 30 G2971.217.324.483.364.30132.4%12.7%25.5%85.1105.68.1%35.1%37.8%
90 days39101.213.297.449.334.28327.7%9.9%23.6%85.5105.68.2%31.1%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.10650.0%0.0%25.0%45.145.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G44.000.000.000.000.15325.0%0.0%16.7%68.689.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G811.000.000.000.044.22027.3%0.0%31.2%60.297.70.0%12.5%12.5%
90 days1418.067.125.067.125.18727.8%5.6%24.1%66.797.70.0%8.3%8.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 83%Line drive 0%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.000.000.000.16838.5%0.0%18.2%76.097.00.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 15 G1540.139.200.333.235.22830.0%5.0%19.1%84.0100.50.0%33.3%25.0%
Last 30 G3082.188.288.420.327.29231.7%11.0%26.1%80.7105.66.7%31.1%33.3%
90 days41119.192.274.394.305.27027.7%9.2%23.7%82.4105.66.8%27.4%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 16%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCutter91.886.36.417Out
Sep 23RHPSlider89.283.150.019Out
Sep 23LHPSinker92.745.1-61.211Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball85.597.05.552Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup85.970.130.800Out
Sep 21RHPFastball96.089.057.005Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.361.755.017Out
Sep 18RHPFastball90.096.219.354Out
Sep 18RHPSinker93.977.951.028Out
Sep 16RHPChangeup85.598.315.758Double
Sep 16RHPChangeup86.898.021.371Out
Sep 16RHPSlider86.495.142.033Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400001
Sep 23200001
Sep 21400001
Sep 20200001
Sep 19100001
Sep 18400011
Sep 16412000
Sep 15300001
Sep 14200011
Sep 12311001
FormNormal
Contact rating12Poor
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.296 / .266running 29 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.316
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%20.1%
K%23.5%
BB%9.3%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Josh Smith · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Josh Smith · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Kumar Rocker: 38.3% · no hitSep 19 vs Cal Quantrill: 40.4% · no hitSep 20 vs Jacob deGrom: 35.6% · no hitSep 23 vs Trey Gibson: 51.1% · no hitSep 18Sep 23

Hits in 0 of 4 settled games; the projections added up to 1.7. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

4 settled games
Games with a hit0 of 4BTB expected 1.7
Games with 2+ TB0 of 4BTB expected 1.1
Games with a HR0 of 4BTB expected 0.4
Talent gradeFwOBA .316 · K% 23.5%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 23Trey Gibson51.1%33.0%10.5%4000
Sep 20Jacob deGrom35.6%25.0%7.9%2000
Sep 19Cal Quantrill40.4%28.4%8.5%1000
Sep 18Kumar Rocker38.3%23.0%8.4%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.