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Matt Shaw

CHC · Hitter · 2 games projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Matt Shaw · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.000.125.000.088.18537.5%12.5%25.0%72.994.20.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 15 G922.111.238.389.281.28227.3%13.6%23.3%79.8103.97.7%30.8%7.7%
Last 30 G1024.105.261.368.287.29325.0%16.7%19.4%80.4103.97.1%28.6%7.1%
90 days1024.105.261.368.287.29325.0%16.7%19.4%80.4103.97.1%28.6%7.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 7%Fly ball 50%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.400.429.400.357.2710.0%14.3%11.1%81.194.50.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1120.214.368.286.318.29710.0%20.0%17.2%80.8106.90.0%21.4%21.4%
Last 30 G1526.278.440.389.384.29911.5%23.1%22.5%82.5106.90.0%23.5%23.5%
90 days1526.278.440.389.384.29911.5%23.1%22.5%82.5106.90.0%23.5%23.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 6%Fly ball 41%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.167.267.167.213.22520.0%13.3%19.0%77.894.50.0%0.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1542.156.300.344.299.28919.0%16.7%20.3%80.3106.93.7%25.9%14.8%
Last 30 G1950.189.354.378.337.29618.0%20.0%21.1%81.6106.93.2%25.8%16.1%
90 days1950.189.354.378.337.29618.0%20.0%21.1%81.6106.93.2%25.8%16.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 31 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 7%Fly ball 45%Pop-up 10%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 22RHPFastball97.294.220.342Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter80.727.657.147Out
Sep 20RHPSinker92.090.9-9.203Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball81.683.245.010Out
Sep 19LHPFastball92.191.972.000Out
Sep 19LHPChangeup88.794.530.236Sac fly
Sep 19RHPSweeper84.178.7-6.088Out
Sep 15LHPChangeup81.269.935.652Single
Sep 15LHPChangeup79.861.1-60.256Single
Sep 13LHPSinker98.186.131.044Out
Sep 7LHPSinker93.573.055.096Out
Sep 7RHPCutter90.228.7-9–Sac bunt
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 22400002
Sep 20300011
Sep 19400000
Sep 15322010
Sep 13100000
Sep 12100010
Sep 8400013
Sep 7400001
Sep 6100000
Sep 5200010
FormCold
Contact rating20Poor
Last 100 pitches5trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.317 / .285running 33 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.321
Barrel%3.8%
Hard-hit%20.9%
K%21.2%
BB%10.6%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Matt Shaw · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 19 vs Nick Lodolo: 44.8% · no hitSep 25 vs Brayan Bello: 52.6% · not settledSep 19Sep 25

Hits in 0 of 1 settled games; the projections added up to 0.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

1 settled games
Games with a hit0 of 1BTB expected 0.4
Games with 2+ TB0 of 1BTB expected 0.3
Games with a HR0 of 1BTB expected 0.1
Talent gradeFwOBA .321 · K% 21.2%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Brayan Bello52.6%27.2%6.3%not settled
Sep 19Nick Lodolo44.8%29.7%9.9%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.