MLBengine v14
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Lucas Spence

HOU · Hitter · 3 games projected since Sep 23, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

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Sep 26 · 8:40 PM CTvs Jack Perkins RHPHOU @ OAK1+ hit 56.2%2+ TB 34.3%HR 13.7%Sep 25 · 8:40 PM CTvs Jacob Lopez LHPHOU @ OAK1+ hit 55.5%2+ TB 32.7%HR 11.8%

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Lucas Spence · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.444.5001.444.760.44430.0%10.0%45.0%90.6105.833.3%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G1336.188.278.500.364.28633.3%8.3%40.8%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Last 30 G1336.188.278.500.364.28633.3%8.3%40.8%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
90 days1336.188.278.500.364.28633.3%8.3%40.8%91.0106.910.5%47.4%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 19 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 26%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.000.250.000.175.20450.0%25.0%50.0%92.692.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G914.231.286.231.243.28435.7%7.1%36.4%95.2107.312.5%50.0%25.0%
Last 30 G914.231.286.231.243.28435.7%7.1%36.4%95.2107.312.5%50.0%25.0%
90 days914.231.286.231.243.28435.7%7.1%36.4%95.2107.312.5%50.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 8 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 25%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.333.4291.083.593.37635.7%14.3%46.2%90.9105.828.6%57.1%57.1%
Last 15 G1450.200.280.422.330.28534.0%8.0%39.8%92.3107.311.1%48.1%37.0%
Last 30 G1450.200.280.422.330.28534.0%8.0%39.8%92.3107.311.1%48.1%37.0%
90 days1450.200.280.422.330.28534.0%8.0%39.8%92.3107.311.1%48.1%37.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 27 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 26%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 11%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.196.229.398Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup85.8105.8241.727Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.596.930.461Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.1101.8241.020Home run
Sep 23RHPFastball96.450.855.005Out
Jul 31RHPOffspeed54.492.1-14.135Single
Jul 29LHPSinker88.592.6-14.117Out
Jul 27RHPChangeup90.485.0-38.055Out
Jul 27RHPSplitter87.5103.616.591Out
Jul 27RHPSlider89.7104.8-5.382Fielder's choice
Jul 25LHPSlider86.888.023.184Out
Jul 25RHPChangeup79.586.3-11.129Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 244312300
Sep 23400012
Jul 31111000
Jul 29400012
Jul 28100001
Jul 27400001
Jul 25400002
Jul 24511003
Jul 22300001
Jul 21412001
FormHot
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .301results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.317
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%26.0%
K%25.2%
BB%8.0%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Lucas Spence · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 23 vs George Kirby: 53.2% · no hitSep 24 vs Mason Barnett: 51.3% · 3 HSep 25 vs Jacob Lopez: 55.4% · not settledSep 23Sep 25

Hits in 1 of 2 settled games; the projections added up to 1.0. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

2 settled games
Games with a hit1 of 2BTB expected 1.0
Games with 2+ TB1 of 2BTB expected 0.6
Games with a HR1 of 2BTB expected 0.2
Talent gradeNeuwOBA .317 · K% 25.2%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Jacob Lopez55.4%33.2%12.8%not settled
Sep 24Mason Barnett51.3%26.8%11.0%43123
Sep 23George Kirby53.2%29.3%9.5%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.