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Xander Bogaerts

SD · Hitter · 5 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Xander Bogaerts · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.167.333.167.260.28213.3%20.0%17.4%90.2104.20.0%40.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1549.268.388.463.382.31222.4%16.3%17.3%91.5112.03.4%48.3%17.2%
Last 30 G2884.222.333.361.317.30421.4%14.3%22.6%93.5112.03.8%50.9%20.8%
90 days70213.211.319.344.302.31919.7%13.6%21.6%90.7112.07.2%44.6%28.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 139 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 15%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.500.500.750.537.36025.0%0.0%33.3%93.4106.00.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G914.385.429.462.396.4187.1%7.1%21.1%94.7107.90.0%58.3%41.7%
Last 30 G1736.312.389.344.339.34213.9%11.1%21.4%91.2107.90.0%40.7%33.3%
90 days4186.257.360.311.313.34612.8%14.0%21.6%91.8111.00.0%50.8%27.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 21%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.250.368.312.318.29915.8%15.8%21.9%90.9106.00.0%46.2%15.4%
Last 15 G1563.296.397.463.385.33619.0%14.3%18.0%92.4112.02.4%51.2%24.4%
Last 30 G30120.250.350.356.324.31519.2%13.3%22.3%92.7112.02.5%47.5%25.0%
90 days75299.224.331.335.305.32717.7%13.7%21.6%91.0112.05.0%46.5%28.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 202 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 17%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 5%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker95.591.2-34.050Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.577.950.055Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.089.8-37.047Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter92.1104.2-8.324Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.699.47.577Out
Sep 22LHPSinker95.3106.0-12.284Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball100.1101.7-3.394Single
Sep 20RHPSweeper83.973.0-21.041Out
Sep 20RHPSlider84.683.172.003Out
Sep 20RHPSinker99.199.38.580Single
Sep 18RHPSinker95.881.9-16.071Out
Sep 18LHPSweeper85.176.721.895Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400010
Sep 23400012
Sep 22311000
Sep 20411010
Sep 18423001
Sep 17539102
Sep 16400020
Sep 15511002
Sep 14411010
Sep 13400002
FormNormal
Contact rating77Above average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.310 / .344running 33 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Xander Bogaerts · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Xander Bogaerts · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Tyler Phillips: 56.3% · 2 HSep 22 vs Brock Stewart: 57.1% · 1 HSep 23 vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 61.3% · no hitSep 24 vs Tyler Glasnow: 57.3% · no hitSep 25 vs Brandon Pfaadt: 63.0% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 2 of 4 settled games; the projections added up to 2.3. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

4 settled games
Games with a hit2 of 4BTB expected 2.3
Games with 2+ TB1 of 4BTB expected 1.2
Games with a HR0 of 4BTB expected 0.3
Talent grade—wOBA – · K% –

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Brandon Pfaadt63.0%35.4%9.7%not settled
Sep 24Tyler Glasnow57.3%26.5%9.3%4000
Sep 23Yoshinobu Yamamoto61.3%30.2%8.1%4000
Sep 22Brock Stewart57.1%31.9%8.9%3110
Sep 18Tyler Phillips56.3%28.2%7.9%4230
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.